25-26 NFL Season Preview

 

September is almost here...

The NFL season, once again, is just around the corner. It has become a tradition for Rhythm of the Sword to preview each new season, making several predictions that prove, without exception, to be perfectly accurate. The sportswriters at ESPN have been hassling me to get this post out so that they know what "hot takes" to come up with early in the season. So without further ado, I present the 25-26 NFL season preview.

A Flaw in the prevailing narrative

At this stage in the offseason, and indeed ever since the Super Bowl, most fans and pundits have agreed that the Eagles deserve a comfortable Number 1 spot. Their late-season dominance and Super Bowl title, along with a very well-rounded roster, make a strong case. Following the Eagles is some mixture of the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Lions.

While I agree that the Eagles are poised for a strong playoff run, I don't love their odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions. A huge part of last season's success was predicated on a simple fact: Defenses simply did not have enough resources to shut down both Barkley and Hurts. If you committed enough to shut down Barkley (as we saw in the Super Bowl), Hurts and the receiving corps were poised to get the job done. If you trusted to a more balanced response to these two threats (as we saw in the NFC Championship), Barkley would take over the game with a few big runs. 

But in a league this competitive, it only takes one puff of wind to collapse the whole house of cards. I think it will take the form of an injury to either Hurts or Barkley - more likely Barkley, whose body has just endured an extremely punishing and high-usage season. With seven years under his belt, Barkley is old for a running back, and statistically speaking, a significant decline is reasonable to expect. Without the looming threat of his explosive play, there are several contenders who I believe would have the edge over Philadelphia.

So who's it gonna be?

If I had to pick a team to win it all right now (August 17th), I would have to go with the Buffalo Bills. They have the quarterback talent, and we've seen them get within a couple plays of taking the next step. Allen also has a better injury history the the Ravens' Jackson. For Buffalo, the elephant in the room remains Kansas City. I don't think Kansas City will be good enough this year to break hearts like they have before. Mahomes and company will be good again, but with two teams so evenly matched, I just don't see them pulling off yet another stunning playoff win against the Bills this year, even if the refs are trying to nudge the result. Kansas City has stagnated a little, and the rest of the league is catching up.

Backs are Back

The thing I like most about football is watching running backs run. So what a blessing to be living through a running renaissance. I've already shared my thoughts on a regression for Barkley this year. I have similar concerns for Derrick Henry, but to a lesser extent; I think he will continue to be a key contributor for Baltimore. I loved Ashton Jeanty's college game, but I think he will struggle to make the adjustment to NFL competition, with a positive but not stunning first season in Oakland. Nick Chubb, my favorite RB in the league, is now in Houston. I'm really impressed by CJ Stroud, and I see the Texans being competitive in the AFC. As for Cleveland, I like Jerome Ford better than Quinshon Judkins; neither is at the top level (yet) but I could see Ford developing into a strong contributor.

The question you've all been waiting for: How will the Browns do this year?

The Browns  had a high-publicity draft, taking both Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders for Quarterback. Together with Flacco and Pickett and of course Watson, there are a lot of names at play. Here's my brief take on each QB:

• Gabriel - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Sanders - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Flacco - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Pickett - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Watson - capable of being an above-average starter or strong replacement... at my local high school

I've ranted about the incompetence of Browns' ownership before, so I'll keep this brief: having 5  quarterbacks doesn't mean you have a good quarterback. With the Browns still not turning a significant page at Quarterback, and with the beloved Chubb no longer in Cleveland, and with Myles Garrett dissatisfied, I just don't see things getting too much better this year. I think Stefanski is doing a fine job, but it's not enough. The Browns finished 3-14 last year. I'm predicting a 5-12 season, mostly thanks to continuity at head coach, and the possibility that one of the quarterbacks (probably Flacco) will exceed expectations. I think the most obvious path back to playoff competitiveness is a change in ownership, but there is no indication right now that we should hold our breath.

What other surprises do we anticipate?

By virtue of anticipating it, the thing, by definition, is no longer a surprise. But for those few non-readers of this blog, here are some future developments that you might not see coming:

1. Nick Chubb will rush for 1,000 yards. After a few seasons in Texas (and after rebuilding every bone in is knee), Cleveland will realize their folly, bring him back home, and win it all on an Age-35 Nick Chubb touchdown. By this point he will be called "Cyber-Chubb".

2. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will fall short - again. You shouldn't have left Cleveland - at least we know we won't win.

3. The Cleveland Browns will plant the seeds of the future. The Browns will get Arch Manning in the 2026 draft, they will trade for Ashton Jeanty another year later, and begin a renaissance of Cleveland football. Just wait till next year. Or the year after the year after that.