25-26 NFL Season Preview

 

September is almost here...

The NFL season, once again, is just around the corner. It has become a tradition for Rhythm of the Sword to preview each new season, making several predictions that prove, without exception, to be perfectly accurate. The sportswriters at ESPN have been hassling me to get this post out so that they know what "hot takes" to come up with early in the season. So without further ado, I present the 25-26 NFL season preview.

A Flaw in the prevailing narrative

At this stage in the offseason, and indeed ever since the Super Bowl, most fans and pundits have agreed that the Eagles deserve a comfortable Number 1 spot. Their late-season dominance and Super Bowl title, along with a very well-rounded roster, make a strong case. Following the Eagles is some mixture of the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Lions.

While I agree that the Eagles are poised for a strong playoff run, I don't love their odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions. A huge part of last season's success was predicated on a simple fact: Defenses simply did not have enough resources to shut down both Barkley and Hurts. If you committed enough to shut down Barkley (as we saw in the Super Bowl), Hurts and the receiving corps were poised to get the job done. If you trusted to a more balanced response to these two threats (as we saw in the NFC Championship), Barkley would take over the game with a few big runs. 

But in a league this competitive, it only takes one puff of wind to collapse the whole house of cards. I think it will take the form of an injury to either Hurts or Barkley - more likely Barkley, whose body has just endured an extremely punishing and high-usage season. With seven years under his belt, Barkley is old for a running back, and statistically speaking, a significant decline is reasonable to expect. Without the looming threat of his explosive play, there are several contenders who I believe would have the edge over Philadelphia.

So who's it gonna be?

If I had to pick a team to win it all right now (August 17th), I would have to go with the Buffalo Bills. They have the quarterback talent, and we've seen them get within a couple plays of taking the next step. Allen also has a better injury history the the Ravens' Jackson. For Buffalo, the elephant in the room remains Kansas City. I don't think Kansas City will be good enough this year to break hearts like they have before. Mahomes and company will be good again, but with two teams so evenly matched, I just don't see them pulling off yet another stunning playoff win against the Bills this year, even if the refs are trying to nudge the result. Kansas City has stagnated a little, and the rest of the league is catching up.

Backs are Back

The thing I like most about football is watching running backs run. So what a blessing to be living through a running renaissance. I've already shared my thoughts on a regression for Barkley this year. I have similar concerns for Derrick Henry, but to a lesser extent; I think he will continue to be a key contributor for Baltimore. I loved Ashton Jeanty's college game, but I think he will struggle to make the adjustment to NFL competition, with a positive but not stunning first season in Oakland. Nick Chubb, my favorite RB in the league, is now in Houston. I'm really impressed by CJ Stroud, and I see the Texans being competitive in the AFC. As for Cleveland, I like Jerome Ford better than Quinshon Judkins; neither is at the top level (yet) but I could see Ford developing into a strong contributor.

The question you've all been waiting for: How will the Browns do this year?

The Browns  had a high-publicity draft, taking both Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders for Quarterback. Together with Flacco and Pickett and of course Watson, there are a lot of names at play. Here's my brief take on each QB:

• Gabriel - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Sanders - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Flacco - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Pickett - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Watson - capable of being an above-average starter or strong replacement... at my local high school

I've ranted about the incompetence of Browns' ownership before, so I'll keep this brief: having 5  quarterbacks doesn't mean you have a good quarterback. With the Browns still not turning a significant page at Quarterback, and with the beloved Chubb no longer in Cleveland, and with Myles Garrett dissatisfied, I just don't see things getting too much better this year. I think Stefanski is doing a fine job, but it's not enough. The Browns finished 3-14 last year. I'm predicting a 5-12 season, mostly thanks to continuity at head coach, and the possibility that one of the quarterbacks (probably Flacco) will exceed expectations. I think the most obvious path back to playoff competitiveness is a change in ownership, but there is no indication right now that we should hold our breath.

What other surprises do we anticipate?

By virtue of anticipating it, the thing, by definition, is no longer a surprise. But for those few non-readers of this blog, here are some future developments that you might not see coming:

1. Nick Chubb will rush for 1,000 yards. After a few seasons in Texas (and after rebuilding every bone in is knee), Cleveland will realize their folly, bring him back home, and win it all on an Age-35 Nick Chubb touchdown. By this point he will be called "Cyber-Chubb".

2. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will fall short - again. You shouldn't have left Cleveland - at least we know we won't win.

3. The Cleveland Browns will plant the seeds of the future. The Browns will get Arch Manning in the 2026 draft, they will trade for Ashton Jeanty another year later, and begin a renaissance of Cleveland football. Just wait till next year. Or the year after the year after that.

NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals are upon us!

In a better-than-usual playoffs full of competitive games, rivalries, and surprises, The Indiana Pacers will play the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy.

My immediate inclination is to root against the Pacers after they trounced Cleveland on their way to the Finals. But I respect our worthy opponents, and as a former Indiana resident, it would be great to see the Hoosier state bring home a title. I have no bond with OKC, and as the heavy favorites, they also make themselves less palatable. Therefore I will hope for and predict a series win for the Pacers.

I think this series will go all the way. If Indiana manages to beat OKC, I think it will be by very narrow margins. With home-court on their side and superior talent, I think the Thunder will take the first game, overwhelming the Pacers with their dominance on both ends of the court. The Pacers will make adjustments, but I think the Thunder will manage to take both opening games, with the second by a narrower margin. 

Then Indiana will come out in force to cheer on their team at home. I'm hoping the refs will be a little lax with the home crowd and the playoff mentality, meaning less free throws for SGA and a little edge for the Pacers. Indiana will take Game 3, and then win a nail-biter in Game 4. 

Back in Oklahoma City, I think the Thunder take Number 5, then the Pacers Number 6 back in Hoosierland. In other words, everyone wins at home (which is actually not how these playoffs have been going so far. It's OK, I'm used to making terrible predictions.)

Then Game 7. I think it will take a significant injury on the Thunder for the Pacers to make it here and take it all - maybe Gilgeous-Alexander sprains an ankle. Whatever the case, I think the Thunder will take a hit personnel-wise, and Indiana will be ready to take advantage and squeeze out a win in Game 7, with some late-game heroics from Haliburton and company. Pacers in 7.

Then, next year.... CLEVELAND! Keep the core, take it to another level, and let's go all the way.

Update: So close! It was Thunder in 7.

 

NBA Playoff Picks / Predictions

 

It's playoff time!

We've arrived at the end of another regular season. Here are my picks for the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

Western Conference

1st Round

OKC beats Memphis 4 games to 1.

Clippers beat Nuggets 4 games to 3.

Lakers beat Timberwolves 4 games to 2.

Rockets beat Warriors 4 games to 3.

2nd Round

OKC beats Clippers 4 games to 2.

Lakers beat Rockets 4 games to 3.

3rd Round

OKC beats Lakers 4 games to 2.

Eastern Conference

1st Round

Cavs beat Heat 4 games to 2.

Bucks beat Pacers 4 games to 2.

Knicks beat Pistons 4 games to 1.

Celtics beat Magic 4 games to 2.

2nd Round

Cavs beat Bucks 4 games to 3.

Knicks beat Celtics 4 games to 3.

3rd Round

Cavs beat Knicks 4 games to 2.

Finals

Cavs beat OKC 4 games to 3.

NBA Post Trade Deadline Thoughts

 

1. Jimmy Butler is not my guy. He seems to be the exact opposite of a team player, and he's someone who's said outright that he's not comfortable with authority. A toxic personality who's not worth the basketball prowess he brings to the table. At this age, his ability to take over games is severely limited.

2. The Luka-AD trade was a bad idea for Dallas and a steal for L.A., but at the same time I don't know how seismic it is for either team's title chances. Both are a little above average this year, and I don't think this drops Dallas out of playoff contention, or lifts the Lakers into championship quality.

3. The Spurs are going to keep getting better, and I'm guessing they'll raise a banner or two in the next decade. Then the real question will become whether Wembanyama wants to find some greener grass away from old curmudgeonly Coach Pop.

4. The Cavs improved a little - they're looking for that extra edge come playoff time. I'll stand by my assessment: Finals-ready but not quite Championship-ready. But please, prove me wrong!

5. The Browns are probably going to be looking at how good the Cavs are and thinking, hey, maybe we should start winning some games every now and then. They should sell the team to Kenny Atkinson; he'd have them in the Super Bowl before the 2020s are over. Ownership is just stupid, and I'm worried about what they're going to do come draft day. I think Jeanty is the best choice, and Cam Ward if not. (And they won't take Jeanty). Don't pass up on an actually solid, red-flag-free young offensive anchor. Please.

Super Bowl Preview

 

We've seen this before. Just two years ago, Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 to win LVII. Now, contrary to both of my predictions, both teams are back for a rematch.

I think the most significant difference for two teams with the same coaches and same quarterbacks is the Running Back position in Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley has been instrumental in each of Philadelphia's postseason wins - and Super Bowl Sunday is his 28th birthday! He's going to bring it, and no one knows for sure how Kansas City will handle it. The two teams did not meet in the regular season, so the direct matchup between Barkley and Kansas City does not have precedent this season.

My predictions have been wrong thus far, but that won't stop me from trying again! My Super Bowl prediction is a 38-34 victory for the Philadelphia Eagles - almost the reverse of their score two Super Bowls ago. I would love to see Nick Chubb barreling over Andy Reid's defense to bring an AFC title to Cleveland. But if I can't have that, I would have no problem seeing Barkley do the same in the Super Bowl - and he's certainly capable. The Eagles smothered the Redskins with 55 points of offense in the NFC Championship game, and three of those touchdowns (along with 118 yards on 7.9 yards per carry) are thanks to their running back. While Kansas City will probably be a stiffer challenge, I think the Eagles will get enough breakthroughs in the run game to make up for Mahomes and the refs. 

UPDATE:

Eagles won! 40-22, and a lot of that 22 from Kansas City was in garbage time. Very impressive and well-earned by Philadelphia.

NFL Playoff Preview

 

The NFL playoffs are down to just four teams - each with a legitimate path to victory. The Eagles have Barkley, the best running back in the league this year. The Commanders have Jayden Daniels, a sensational rookie quarterback looking to make history. The Chiefs have the refs and Patrick Mahomes. And the Bills have likely MVP Josh Allen looking to avenge past playoff losses. This should be fun.

Conference Championship Predictions

The Eagles have been perennially strong, while the Commanders are the upstart team. My head says the Eagles will take this one, but my heart would prefer Washington. Actually, my heart would prefer the Browns but here we are. My prediction is 34-31 for Washington.

The Chiefs have seemingly had everything going their way this season, despite not playing stunningly good football. Their sloppy execution has been counterbalanced by occasional quarterback heroics and frequent assists from potentially corrupt officials. The Bills, on the other hand, look very much like the best remaining team right now - they take care of the ball and have a multifaceted attack in terms of being able to run or pass. They may be able to do enough to make up for the Kansas City mob or whoever's paying these refs. My prediction is 27-24 for Buffalo.

Super Bowl Prediction

Buffalo vs Washington would be a fun matchup. Two refreshing newcomers in recent memory. A Super Bowl run would be a long time coming for the Bills, while it would be a genuine shock for any preseason prognosticator from Washington. While I think Jayden Daniels and his team have a genuine shot at making the big game, I don't think they would be able to overcome a determined Bills team that has waited so long for this moment. My prediction is 38-28 for Buffalo.

What about the Browns?

Nick Chubb broke his foot a few games into his return from MCL / ACL injury, signaling the official end of Cleveland's season. My dream is for the Browns to take Ashton Jeanty with the Number 2 pick, but the odds are very low. As I've said before, I don't think we're likely to make any significant ground until the Browns come under competent ownership. Chubb, though, I think is capable of one more big comeback to help raise the Browns from being terrible to mediocre next season.

Fury vs Usyk 2

 My prediction: 

Round 1 - Usyk

Round 2 - Fury

Round 3 - Fury

Round 4 - Usyk

Round 5 - Fury

Round 6 - Usyk

Round 7 - Usyk

Round 8 - Fury

Round 9 - Usyk

Round 10 - Usyk wins by TKO

Round 2 is on December 21st! Should be another classic. Can Usyk remain undefeated? Usyk rightly the favorite now at -175.

The Cavs' Big Start

 

17-1

The Cavs beat the Raptors a few minutes ago to bring their winning percentage up to 94%, good for first place in the league, a position they have not relinquished since the start of the season.

I don't think anyone was expecting this. First-year head coach Kenny Atkinson has clicked with this team like a key in a lock, and the Cavs have been playing fast, high-powered, disciplined and consistent basketball. It sounds like some of the key improvements have been a better spread of minutes usage across their players, and better, faster ball movement like the Warriors of old (or Spurs - a little older). The result has been a healthy, happy, and extremely good squad that's shooting well, running well, and playing well.

Their single loss is against the reigning champs - the Boston Celtics, who have to still be the favorites to win it all until proven otherwise. But the Cavs fought for every inch of that loss, and they'll have a chance at redemption at home on December 1st. 

Thanks to this great start, I've become more optimistic for this team than I was when the season started. They look to me like a group that has what it takes to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think it's going to still take a little more time to get to the very top level, but I love the Cavs' patience in keeping up some nice roster continuity, giving Atkinson a lot to work with - and now it's finally paying off. I think they are already in the kind of shape where they could give the Celtics a good run for their money to come out the East - and who knows? If they can solve some of the puzzles that the Celtics pose, it could be a trip to the Finals that would have been a total shock to any analyst (myself included) in the pre-season. 

Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Garland, and company are coming into their own. 

Welcome to Cleveland

 

Just another October in Cleveland...

The Indians received the gentleman's sweep from the New York Yankees, and will not be heading to their first World Series since their brutal Game 7 loss in 2016. And now Deshaun Watson, who should have been benched weeks ago, who in fact should never have been hired, has now torn his Achilles tendon and forced Stefanski's hand. In the process, the Browns dropped to 1-6 on the season, and they still owe Watson - the worst QB in the league - approximately a million bajillion dollars.

I hope the Cavs' preseason is going OK.

Somehow, it is in moments like these when it feels the most right to be a Cleveland sports fan. This is what's supposed to happen. This is how it's supposed to feel. It's an inevitability. In the last several decades, only LeBron has been able to drag Cleveland out of its long sports nightmare for a brief moment at the top.

Anyway, Nick Chubb is back in action, so at least the Browns have the hope of a good ground game. But it's hard to know what he'll be like coming back from another injury that severe. I'm going to go ahead and briefly predict the future of the three major Cleveland sports teams:

Cleveland Cavaliers: Win 50 games this season, but continue to miss the breakthrough for the next few years. Next title in the mid-2030s sometime.

Cleveland Indians: Fall off significantly next season as everyone realizes it's hopeless to play ball in Cleveland, but experience a resurrection and their first World Series victory in 2040.

Cleveland Browns: This will be the next Cleveland team to win it all - you heard it here first! Let me break it down:

'24-'25: Finish with 3 wins as - shockingly - the backup QB is once again better than our starter. The Haslams finally sell the team to someone competent. Then, in the offseason, that competent someone drafts the future of our team: Heisman winner Ashton Jeanty

'25-'26: Finish with 5 wins as we try to figure out what to do at QB. Jeanty develops and has a strong rookie year.

'26-'27: Finish with 7 wins. We seal the deal on an actually smart trade from the Texans: C.J. Stroud. Jeanty improves further, we lose in the wildcard game.

'27-'28: Finish the regular season with 11 wins. Jeanty is the best back in the league, Stroud one of the best QBs. We lose in the AFC championship game!

'28-29: Super Bowl Champs!!! Finish the regular season with 14 wins, Jeanty breaking all the rushing records as he goes, Stroud best QB in the league. We win the Super Bowl 38-34 against the Ravens, led by 150 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns from Ashton Jeanty, including a game-winning run with seconds left in the 4th quarter to take the lead.

John Flanagan: Strengths and Weaknesses

 

John Flanagan is the best-selling author of the "Ranger's Apprentice" children's book series, along with its companion series, "Brotherband Chronicles". I was really into these books as a kid and have recently picked up a couple again. They continue to strike me as engaging, fun, and well-written.

Strengths

Flanagan's books are fun. He is not at all shy about bringing you action, witty humor, and fun scenarios for the heroes to try to navigate. His books are written with a refreshing lightness and excitement, a mood that fits beautifully with the titular character, Will, of the Ranger's Apprentice series.

Flanagan is an engaging writer. He paints engaging settings that allow me to picture the backdrop and imagine the scenes as they play out. The dialogue is generally witty and compelling, sprinkled with humor and drama.

Finally, Flanagan writes with a refreshing simplicity, which sometimes plays out as a weakness, but in this genre, it's usually a strength. Instead of becoming lost in plots and subplots, or an unnecessarily large cast of minor characters, the stories are straightforward and easy to follow. Some books feel like work to read, and his are the opposite.

Weaknesses

One of Flanagan's weaknesses is the generally godless nature of his novels. In each Ranger's Apprentice volume, for example, the Ranger Corps' mystique and mystery is repeatedly and clearly revealed to be nothing but skill and subterfuge. Likewise, villains who appear to have supernatural properties are found to be well-trained tricksters. It makes one wonder whether the divine has any place in his world.

Another his his penchant for recycling plot devices - especially a couple that don't happen to be my favorites. One is kidnapping; a disproportionately large number of his books involve some protagonist or supporting character who must be rescued. Another is cliffhangers. I prefer for my novels to be able to stand alone as works of good fiction, but Flanagan often prefers to stretch a conflict across multiple novels, without clear resolutions at the end of each. There obviously is a place for ongoing conflict in a long-term series like this, but each book should come to a satisfying conclusion, which I don't always get in his writing. 

24-25 NFL Season Preview

 

Football is back.

I know that most of the internet flocks here to find out what's going to happen each new NFL season - and my predictions are almost always almost right. For example, last year, one of my five Browns predictions was right, and two others were close (I predicted 10-7, they went 11-6, and I predicted lose in second round; they lost in the first.)

Since my claims prove to be practically prophetic, and since I've spent such copious time in research this summer (well in excess of 300 seconds), it's time to throw down some bold predictions. Buckle up, and start placing your bets...

#1: Nick Chubb will rush for 1,100 yards. 

He's going to be unavailable to start the year, but even if he can play 10 games, the guy could probably throw down 110 per game. Chubb is the hero Cleveland needs but not the one it deserves right now.

#2: The Packers will win the Super Bowl.

Jordan Love was taking names during the playoffs, and he just needs a little more time to grow. Things are looking bright in Green Bay, and if it's not going to be Cleveland or Cincinnati, I'm OK with Green Bay. I think the Bengals will do well but it's not a Super Bowl year.

#3: The Browns will get rid of Watson.

This is more me just explaining what I hope will happen, but at some point they've got to realize they've made a mistake, own it, and cut their losses and start to rebuild. Give it two more years to try out another terrible quarterback choice, then they finally land one, then a few years to develop... 28-29 Super Bowl Champs!

#4: Football will replace Christianity as the most popular sport religion among American men.

Perhaps a little outdated, but please somebody put together a survey and make it official. They should get Fort Wayne or St. Louis to ironically lobby to start an NFL team called the Golden Calves.

#5: Cleveland vs Washington will produce the first 0-0 regulation game since 1943

Sounds like Cleveland's defense will be stout again, and the Redskins' offense is supposed to be bad. Since the Browns are extremely averse to touchdowns and scoring points in general, this could be a real low-scoring game... I mean, real low. You heard it here first, 0-0 on October 6th.

24-25 NBA Season Preview

 

It's that time of year again!

The previous NBA season has ended, the draft is over, a few trades have been made. What could be more fun than making predictions about next year?

Before we begin, let's see how we did on last season's predictions:

Prediction: Giannis MVP  Actual: Nikola Jokic

Prediction: Scoot Rookie of the Year  Actual: Wembanyama

Prediction: Darko (Raptors) Coach of the Year  Actual: Mark Daigneault (Thunder)

Prediction: Nuggets vs Bucks (Bucks win)  Actual: Celtics win the title, over the Mavericks

Ok, so there's nowhere to go but up. I didn't get a single prediction right... but that's why we're here to try again! And that's why I don't participate in sports betting. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 24-25 NBA season.

MVP Prediction: Luka Doncic

With voter fatigue for Jokic and with Doncic making his first Finals (and already sitting high on the MVP ladder), Luka has to be the choice for me. He's probably the betting favorite to win MVP next year. He's shown just how special he is with this year's Western Conference run, and I think he'll come back even better. I also love watching Doncic play.

Rookie of the Year Prediction: Donovan Clingan

It sounds like the Portland Trail Blazers may have gotten a steal with Donovan Clingan at the 7th pick. Coming off an NCAA title with Connecticut, Clingan seems like a really big, solid, consistent, skilled, and high-ceilinged 7'2" 280 lb force to be reckoned with. I honestly don't know much about him as a player, but none of the names or descriptions drafted before him seemed particularly exceptional. This was the first guy that really stood out for me.

Coach of the Year Prediction: Chris Finch

Having already finished high in the COTY voting, I think Finch will take home this honor next season. The Thunder were the shocker tied-for-1-seed in the West, but Finch's Wolves were almost as surprising, and I think an even better 24/25 campaign will lead to some more recognition for him. Also I believe he is British, and last year I (wrongly) picked another European guy named Darko. Maybe I'll keep trying Europeans until one works.

The Cavs: Make the Conference Finals

Number 45 is staying in Cleveland, and the Cavs have chosen a new head coach in Kenny Atkinson. The way I see it, things are looking up in Cleveland. Not only do we have what I think is an exceptionally good star player and head coach, but both guys actually love Cleveland and have bought in. They want to win, but better than that, they want to win in Cleveland. They want to bring the Cavs back to the top. 

I think the Cavs have some serious issues that need to be addressed, and some serious player development or player movement before they become contenders. But I think that we will take another step forward as soon as next season. I would like to officially predict a 50-32 regular season record, and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals where they will be eliminated (By the Celitics). But the 25-26 season or 26-27, might be good enough to take a shot at the title.

Who will win it all?

Let's start by listing the teams that I consider to be serious conference title contenders for the championship next season - teams that wouldn't surprise me by making it to the Finals:

Western Conference: Nuggets, Mavericks, Thunder, Timberwolves

Eastern Conference: Celtics, Bucks, 76ers, Pacers, Knicks

The Western Conference is extremely strong right now, while the strength of the East is more heavily concentrated in Boston. It feels foolish to eliminate any one of the four names out West that I listed, as none of them have glaring weaknesses to me. But if I have to pick a favorite to make the Finals, it's the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks will probably improve a little (especially with the addition of Klay Thompson), but with the Timberwolves' youth and electric guys like Anthony Edwards coming into their own, as well as their stellar defense, I think they'll put it all together and make a Finals run.

In the East, the Celtics I'm sure are clear betting favorites, but can anyone challenge? The 76ers with the addition of Paul George? The Knicks with Mikal Bridges? I'm going to pick the Celtics. They are so well-coached that I think it will keep any kind of complacency from taking root following this group's first title. Their starters are locked in and paid handsomely. Boston is in such a good place right now that I just don't see them not making the Finals.

The Finals: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics

That set's up a Finals matchup of Timberwolves vs Celtics. I think it will be a great experience for Minnesota, but in the end Boston is all set to execute back-to-back titles. Celtics in 6 for the win.

Celtics win the Finals in 6 games.

Miscellaneous Predictions

Before we bring our predictions to an official close, I'd like to finish with a few miscellaneous predictions for the upcoming season, increasing my likelihood of getting at least one guess right in this article...

#1: The Los Angeles Lakers will make the playoffs. I don't think they are good enough to make the Finals, but LeBron will contribute a little extra juice so he has the chance to make the playoffs with his son. Super cool. I'm predicting a 6-seed.

#2: The Best Record in the NBA will be 62-20. I'm not sure who will have it, but that will be the record. 

#3: The New York Knicks will win the NBA Cup. In the second year of the league's in-season tournament, I think the Knicks will get some attention early-season for taking home the win. I think they'll be ready to play elite basketball earlier in the season than many other teams.

#4: The Clippers won't make the playoffs. After finishing with the 4-seed, this team is, as usual, not going to figure it out. They already lost Paul George to the 76ers, and their other stars are almost always hurt. I don't know why teams don't take players' injury-prone tendencies into account more heavily.

#5: Donovan Mitchell will finish #4 in MVP voting. The Cavs need more support for this one-man-army, but until that happens, he's going to continue putting up insane numbers. 

We'll revisit this article periodically, and in June of 2025 we can see if anything went my way this time around!

To Beat the GOATs

Fantasy basketball scenario:

Make the best historical NBA team possible, without using LeBron or MJ. Here's what I would do:

PG: Magic Johnson (Great passing, ball distribution, also more than capable scorer)

SG: Kobe Bryant (Will to win, finds a way to score, takes over games)

SF: Larry Bird (See above)

PF: Tim Duncan (Skilled, Consistent, can do it all)

C: Hakeem Olajuwon (Great defense and rebounding, great skill and consistency, can do it all)

I think these 5 would beat any other 5, even if it had both Lebron and MJ. For example:

PG: Stephen Curry

SG: Michael Jordan

SF: LeBron James

PF: Kevin Garnett

C: Shaquille O'Neal

2024 NBA Finals - Preview and Predictions

 

It's that time again!

The NBA playoffs have come to their culmination. The Dallas Mavericks beat the Timberwolves 4-1 and the Boston Celtics beat the Pacers 4-0 to set up a really fun Finals matchup. 

Back on February 9th, after Kyrie went to the Mavericks, I wrote, "The Mavericks are the new favorites in the West." My sports predictions are not often right, but this time it played out the way you'd expect. The Mavericks' run reminds me of some of the LeBron / Kyrie years with the Cavs: rarely at the top of their conference, but nearly unstoppable come playoff time. And Luka is a player of that caliber, capable of taking over an entire series. He's found an excellent partner in crime with Kyrie, and I think the two of them are going to have a lot of guys in Boston a little nervous.

At the same time, let's not forget the historically great regular season that Boston turned in. They've been the team to beat all year, and have waltzed through the playoffs up to this point. With such a deep, well-rounded, built-to-win roster, it's hard to bet against the Celtics. 

I have a sweet spot for Kyrie from his days in Cleveland, and Doncic has been super fun since he first entered the league. In other words, I am biased. But aside from those factors, here's why I think the Dallas Mavericks will win the 2024 NBA Title.

Best Duo + Good Team

On way to look at a recipe for a Championship-caliber team is to have the best possible duo, surrounded by good players. Think Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Steph and KD, LeBron and Kyrie, Jokic and Murray. Well, Dallas has the best duo in this matchup in Luka and Kyrie. While Tatum and Brown are undeniably excellent, I don't think many would argue that Tatum has risen to Luka's heights, or Brown to Kyrie's. So Dallas has the edge in terms of a star one-two punch. But almost as promising has been the level of contribution from the rest of the team. The 2017 Cavs taught is that it doesn't matter how good your 1-2 is, if the other team also has a great 1-2 but a vastly superior 3-4-5. For these Finals, I would say that Dallas has a decisive advantage with the 1-2, and only a slight disadvantage on the 3-4-5-6. To me, that's a recipe for success.

The Game is About Buckets

One of the things that makes Dallas's 1-2 punch superior is their ability to shoot the basketball into the bucket. Not to state the obvious, but as Uncle Drew would say, the game is about buckets. It sets off little alarm bells with me when I'm hearing all the praises sung for some exciting new player, but then "he's not a great shooter." Oh. So the one thing you absolutely need to win basketball games, that's not what he's about. If shooting isn't your strong suit, good luck facing up against Luka and Kyrie in the playoffs. Those guys just know how to get buckets. And they know it better than Tatum, or Brown, or anyone else on the Celtics roster. I trust the Mavericks more than the Celtics to put the ball in the bucket in crunch time with the game on the line.

The Mind of a Champion

Especially when the lights are the brightest, the mind plays a huge role in success or failure. If two teams or individuals are closely matched in terms of physical ability, the mentally stronger team or individual will almost always win. I think both Boston and Dallas have players and coaches with great mental stability, focus, and strength. But the two individuals who I think will have the greatest influence on the outcome of the Finals are Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. Doncic thrives in high-pressure situations. He wants the big shot, and he knows he can make it. And Tatum wants the shot, too, but the difference is that he wants to prove to the world that he can make it. Remember last year, when Tatum said, "I'm humbly one of the best basketball players in the world." That's a line that you hear from a guy who is trying to convince himself of the fact. Curry doesn't need to say that. Kawhi in 2019 didn't need to say that. And Doncic doesn't need to say that, because he knows it to be true. He's not trying to convince you, and more importantly he's not trying to convince himself. He already has that confidence. A little mental edge like that can be the difference between winning and losing, between finding the right moment or chucking up a prayer, between making and missing. 

I will say that if Jayson Tatum can overcome his mental demons, I think the Celtics will win it all. But the inconsistent nature of his playoff performances tells me he's not there yet.

How it Happens

To finish, I'll briefly break down how I expect the Finals to play out.

Game 1: Celtics win due to superior overall talent and ability. They are physically and mentally fresh, not yet worn down by the fear and uncertainty that Kyrie and Luka will inspire in them. (Right - Celtics won)

Game 2: Mavericks win due to a big game from Luka. He gets buckets, he takes names, and he is not going to let Dallas go down 2-0 in his long-awaited first Finals. (Wrong - Celtics won)

Game 3: Mavericks win as the home crowd gets into Boston's head a little, Kyrie has his first big game on the stat sheet, and the Celtics fight hard but fall short. (Wrong - Celtics won)

Game 4: Celtics win as Tatum has his biggest game of the series, the Mavericks get a little worn down, and Boston gets used to the crowd's pressure. (Wrong - Mavericks won. This is why I should not try sports betting.)

Game 5: Mavericks win in Boston, as Luka takes pleasure in silencing the raucous crowd and he and Kyrie drop bucket after bucket late in the game. Boston can't keep up, and the mental demons are starting to show in Tatum and company.

Game 6: Mavericks win it all. Boston plays desperately to try to avoid a heartbreaking elimination. Brown has his best game of the series. But Luka plays viciously and with absolute unstoppable bucketry to put it away once and for all. Kyrie plays with cold and Mamba-mentality machine-like bucket-making wizardry to help seal the win. Final score 119-107. Luka pours in 34, Kyrie with 30. Luka wins Finals MVP and his first ring. Kyrie and Dallas each win their second championship. 

What's Next?

If Doncic wins this year, he may be setting up a dynasty in Dallas. The world is starting to realize just how special Luka is. Kyrie is 32. And Luka is only 25 years old. I'm guessing they have at least one more title together in their future, especially if they finish the job this year. I'm guessing that Luka will retire with 5 championships to his name.

NBA Conference Finals Preview + Predictions

 

Well, I did predict that the Cavs would win their first playoff series and then lose the second. It still stings though to see them go out in 5 games to the Celtics. But the other two quarterfinal series were more competitive, going to 6, 7, and 7 games. Now, our field is set with a very interesting mix of four teams:

Pacers - Not expected to actually make it this far, young and fun team apparently

Timberwolves - Also young and fun - great regular season but I figured they would get beat by Denver

Celtics - Best team in the league all season, but can they finally bring home the hardware?

Mavericks - My favorite of the bunch, due to the presence of the Doncic / Irving dynamic duo

Let's break down each matchup, and then look at my predicted Finals matchup. 

Pacers vs Celtics

Celtics favorites and for good reason; I don't think Indiana has the raw firepower and star play to push them over the edge. They'll be hungry for more next year, though. I don't know if Tatum and company are mentally good enough to win it all, but I think they can handle the Pacers in a best of 7. Celtics in 6.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves

Luka and Kyrie have the skills and experience, and really don't want to let this golden opportunity pass them by. Minnesota is fun and really excellent, but they probably lack the playoff poise to put together four wins against these Mavericks. Look for some heroic games from both of the Mavericks' stars, and an exciting but decisive end for Edwards, KAT, and company. Mavericks in 6.

Celtics vs Mavericks

That would leave us with a Finals matchup of Boston vs Dallas. Part of me can't help but think that Boston has to actually win it all one of these years, considering they've been on the cusp with this group for maybe half a decade. The other part of me can't help but remember the failures and mental lapses of the past, the weak mindset that has plagued Tatum and his compatriots for years. I think Luka and Kyrie have that killer instinct, and for that reason I'll take the Mavericks in 7 to win it all.

Super Bowl Prediction LVIII

 

With about 60 total minutes of total NFL watch time this season, and aware of of the two remaining teams and their general storylines, I am ready to make my Super Bowl prediciton.

For context, when I predicted the remaining playoff rounds, I was wrong in all but one of my Divisional round predictions and had the Packers vs Texans I believe in the Super Bowl. So this is bound to be 100% accurate.

Mahomes seems to possess an unseen magic (maybe with the help of the refs) when it comes to playoff time, a la LeBron James. He finds a way to make it happen. The 49ers, on the other hand, are a really solid team all around with a great running back and offensive system.

I'm picking the Chiefs, unfortunately. I don't really care who wins - probably whoever happens to be behind at any given time. Go Browns.

Prediction: 27 - 17 Chiefs

NFL Remaining Playoff Predictions

 

The 2024 playoffs are well underway! Before the season, I predicted that the Browns would win in the first round. They did make the first round, but were beaten soundly by the Texans. I'm impressed they made it this far with a 4th-string QB and without Nick Chubb. But now, the remaining bracket looks like this:

Texans vs Ravens
                                        AFC Championship Game
Chiefs vs Bills

                                                                        Super Bowl

Packers vs 49ers
                                        NFC Championship Game

Buccaneers vs Lions

Here are my predictions for each remaining game on the NFL playoff schedule:

Divisional Round

• Texans shock the Ravens 31-28 (I want Stroud to go all the way now, since he's the one who took down the Browns)
• Bills take down the Chiefs 34-28 (Mahomes doesn't quite have the right supporting cast to break the Bills' hearts again
• Packers shock the 49ers 37-34 (Jordan Love is the future of Green Bay, 49ers struggle with injuries)
• Lions beat the Buccaneers 24-21 (Detroit is boiling over with energy right now)

Conference Championships

• Bills beat the Texans 38-24 (I want Stroud to go all the way, but the inexperience will catch up with him at this point)
• Packers beat the Lions 42-31 (The Packers win was the only game I actually partially watched this season, so I want them in the Super Bowl. Also just a fun team. Classic color scheme.)

Super Bowl

• Bills beat the Packers 34-31 (It all finally comes together in Buffalo. Packers will get rings with Love, just not yet.)

Check back in after a month and see how things went!

Murtagh - Book Review (Vague Spoilers)

 

I was a big fan of the original Inheritance cycle. It ranks among my very favorite book series, right up there near Harry Potter. So when I heard that Paolini was returning to Alagaesia with Murtagh, I was understandably excited. Shortly following its release, I acquired Murtagh on audiobook through Amazon and got to listening!

I would love to start spouting forth praise for Murtagh, heralding it as the best Inheritance entry yet, and it seems that many have called it that. Indeed, I tend to have high praise for whatever book I just read, as a general rule. But Murtagh was actually much more of a mixed bag for me. Let's start with the positives.

Positive - The Third and Final Act

The last act of this novel is by far its strongest. Full of intense struggle, strong character work, and compelling action, This section of the book is nearly as compelling as I had hoped the entire book would be. The finale is satisfying and the falling action is handled nicely, with hints at a larger conflict set in motion by the events of Murtagh.

Positive - Murtagh's Character Development

By the end of this novel, I feel like I know Murtagh as well as or better than any other character in the world of Alagesia. Paolini's narrow focus reaps rewards in the closeness the reader achieves with the story's protagonist. Spending so much time with Murtagh in this critical series of events in his life, the reader  builds sympathy for his plight and empathy for his overarching concerns and struggles. Thorn also becomes a much more multifaceted and fleshed out character over the course of the novel.

Positive - Swords

I don't know what it is or how he does it, but Christopher Paolini knows how to write about swords. The forging at the end of Brisingr was legendary. Paolini carries that over with some good sword action in Murtagh, and it works beautifully.

Unfortunately, I felt that the book also had some glaring weaknesses that brought down the story as a whole. Here are the negative aspects of the novel from my point of view:

Negative - Pacing

Murtagh can be very, very slow. There was an entire section in the middle where I felt almost no desire to pick it back up and start listening again, because things just didn't feel like they were moving along. Paolini loves to dwell on descriptive language without particular purpose for the story, and on the thoughts and musings of his protagonist long after the reader has lost interest. At multiple points I felt like I was reading an early draft that had yet to be tightened up by a good editor. There are times when a plot device requires great urgency, and our hero approaches it in an almost comically thoughtful and leisurely way. The book evokes very little urgency overall. Murtagh and Thorn muse extensively about where to go and what to do. As a result, we don't get the sense that we need to be overly concerned about what course of action they eventually choose. Early in a fantasy novel, I think it's important to establish the critical and momentous nature of events.

Negative - Lack of Investment

Murtagh fails to evoke investment in the protagonist's struggles for the first two-thirds of the book. Part of the reason is that the early challenges faced by Murtagh seem forced, more like video game mini-quests than organic happenings in the real world. One plot device requires Murtagh to retrieve an item... so that he can defeat an enemy... so that he can impress a captain... so that he can gain entry to a group... so that he can gain access to a room... so that he can rescue a character... so that he can receive information... all just so that he can locate the actual antagonist of the story. The novel labors upon this particular sequence of events for what feels like an eternity.

Often times, Murtagh's stated personality traits are juxtaposed with his actions in a disorienting way. We finish hearing about how Murtagh is determined to cling to his freedom, and then watch as he voluntarily submits to the control of an adversary. Thankfully, his whishy-washiness in the earlier chapters is eventually replaced with a firm resolve that I found refreshing. But all the head-scratching in the first two acts really brings down the story as a whole.

Negative - Godlessness

Murtagh is a truly godless novel. We've seen it in Paolini's earlier work but it bears repeating - the protagonists of Alagesia see themselves as the closest thing there is to a god deserving of fear, love, and trust. The most profound and climactic character moments in Murtagh all revolve around self-discovery and pursuing one's personal freedom. Murtagh and Thorn seek to live above and apart from all rule and authority, and they do not desire the mercy of a forgiving God, even though their past misdeeds beg and require such a solution. Rather, they resolve all their existential problems simply through introspection and life experience. The only higher being in the novel actually turns out to be the budding new villain - a fitting microcosm for Paolini's conception of god.

Negative - Stupidity

It would take me some time to recall all the times when this book made me ask myself, "Why is he acting so stupid?" I am willing to suspend disbelief when characters  make foolish decisions for the furtherance of the plot. But Murtagh takes this to a whole new level, especially for a character with so much experience dealing with the schemes of the bad guys in the past. 

Murtagh enters location after location with no plan, no preparation, no store of magical energy, and no rest. Murtagh meets the big new villain and immediately eats her food, drinks her wine, and then sleeps in the bed she offers. Strange behavior for a character who is supposedly fiercely independent. Murtagh abandons Thorn over and over, sometimes to satisfy trivial curiosities. Murtagh declines countless opportunities for escape and assistance, even in dire danger. Murtagh seems obsessed with courtesy and politeness, even when dealing with obvious enemies. He can be a very frustrating character to get behind.

To conclude, I have to give Murtagh a final score of 6.5/10. A good editor could have brought it up to a 7.5, and a more compelling basic story would have put it even higher. But as it stand, a score of 65% seems about right.

A Fantasy NBA Team - No Superstars

The NBA is a league where the stars drive the money, the market, the hype, and the overall success of the league. It's always fun to create fantasy sports teams and matchups, but could a team without the superstars still find success? Here's my question - could you build an 8-man rotation out of current NBA players that would win it all, but without any player who has ever finished top-5 in MVP voting?

All the current best teams have at least one guy in this top tier of players. The Nuggets have Jokic, the Celtics have Tatum, the Suns have Durant, and so on. Could you win it all without any of these guys?

I went through the MVP lists back to the 2013-2014 season and put together the following list of 19 active players who will be excluded from this fantasy team:

Kevin Durant

LeBron James

Blake Griffin

James Harden

Stephen Curry

Russell Westbrook

Anthony Davis

Kawhi Leonard

Isaiah Thomas

Damian Lillard

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Paul George

Nikola Jokic

Luka Doncic

Joel Embiid

Chris Paul

Devin Booker

Jayson Tatum

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Without the very best players of the last 10 years available, could you still build a winning 8-man rotation? Here's my attempt:

Starting Big: Bam Adebayo

Starting Forwards: Jimmy Butler, Anthony Edwards

Starting Guards: Tyrese Haliburton, Kyrie Irving

Bench Big: Domantas Sabonis

Bench Forward: Mikal Bridges

Bench Guard: Jrue Holiday

On the downside, this roster has no clear superstars (which is the intention), although Jimmy Butler might disagree and rightfully so. And so many of these players are on the cusp - which is the point. Despite lacking a big-time MVP-caliber superstar, every single player on the roster is so solid, and I also think they would compliment each other very well. 

Butler, Edwards, and Irving could all take charge as primary scorers. Adebayo, Butler, Bridges, and Holiday can all play lockdown defense. Haliburton is a genius distributor. Adebayo and Sabonis can grab rebounds all day. And on top of all this, the roster as a whole has a better than average injury history. That is the main reason for the inclusion of Mikal Bridges, who is an excellent player that also has not missed a game since being drafted.

Put these guys up against any of the top teams in the league right now in a 7-game series, and I think they would come up on top. I would expect them to finish in the neighborhood of 60 regular season wins, and then lose in the playoffs 4-7 times on the way to a Finals trophy. Even if you used "cloning" and didn't take them from the teams they actually play on, I think this rotation is good enough to win it all (plug in bottom-of-the-barrel NBA players you want to fill out the roster).

NBA - 15.8% Midseason - 5 Thoughts

 

Good evening!

It's been far too long since the NBA season has begun without word from the Rhythm of the Sword Blog - but here we are, come to the rescue and not a moment too soon! Action around the league is heating up, from the surging Timberwolves to the (gasp!) struggling Clippers. Here are 5 thoughts at the 15.8% point of this NBA season, as measured by the Cavs' number of completed games out of the 82 on the regular season schedule:

#1 - The Cleveland Cavaliers have not figured it out... yet

There have been encouraging flashes here and there, like the Cavs' most recent win against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, without the services of Donovan Mitchell no less. But the Cavs are only sitting at 7-6, just as hot and cold as last year and not separating themselves in any meaningful way from conference rivals. What will it take for Bickerstaff and the Cavs to accomplish a shift in team culture this season? The clock is ticking.

#2 - The Lakers are shooting themselves in the foot

LeBron has played at least 35 minutes in over half of the Lakers' games so far this year (7/13). The 38-year-old is somehow still expected to to be the main man in Los Angeles, even with the likes of Anthony Davis (age 30) healthy and playing alongside him. No one else on the roster seems to have taken the initiative to play a leadership role for the Lakers. The result is going to be another regular season of overuse for LeBron, leading to injury and an early playoff exit at best. The 4-time champ is not getting his fifth title if his teammates can't give him a chance to be fresh for the playoffs.

#3 - The Western Conference has two new serious contenders

At this moment in time, the Timberwolves and Thunder are sitting at Numbers 1 and 2 in the West. These young teams are finally beginning to really blossom after some rebuilding years, led by the emergence of two new superstars in Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Edwards in particular is getting a lot of hype, and his explosive play, 26 ppg  /  38.8 3P% stats, and low-maintenance injury history are making that hype look very much warranted. He should probably get his own article soon.

#4 - An MVP in the Making?

The internet tells me that Tyrese Haliburton has transformed the Pacers into a fast, free-flowing, competitive team. Currently leading the league in assists (12.5 apg), Haliburton has brought a new style of play to Indiana, a team that is near and dear to my heart as a former citizen of that great state. If the man could stay healthy, I could see Haliburton taking the Pacers on a deep playoff run as early as the '25-'26 season. You heard it here first. I want to watch some of his highlights, but alas for Zero Entertainment. Haliburton is also currently 4th in Player Efficiency Rating in the league at 29.71. All the stats are from Basketball-Reference.com by the way.

#5 - Still Championship Favorites?

The Damian Lillard era in Milwaukee has had mixed results so far. While the addition of Oregon's finest point guard has certainly lit up the Bucks' offensive capabilities, it has come at the price of defense. And while you can argue about whether or not defense wins championships, it certain does help. And the Bucks don't have it. I think Antetokounmpo and Lillard are players of such quality that they will find a way to overcome this shortcoming to find their way to rings and a banner, but the road will be neither easy nor linear. After a 9-4 start including losses to the Magic, Raptors, and Hawks, Milwaukee has plenty of work to do.