25-26 NFL Season Preview

 

September is almost here...

The NFL season, once again, is just around the corner. It has become a tradition for Rhythm of the Sword to preview each new season, making several predictions that prove, without exception, to be perfectly accurate. The sportswriters at ESPN have been hassling me to get this post out so that they know what "hot takes" to come up with early in the season. So without further ado, I present the 25-26 NFL season preview.

A Flaw in the prevailing narrative

At this stage in the offseason, and indeed ever since the Super Bowl, most fans and pundits have agreed that the Eagles deserve a comfortable Number 1 spot. Their late-season dominance and Super Bowl title, along with a very well-rounded roster, make a strong case. Following the Eagles is some mixture of the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Lions.

While I agree that the Eagles are poised for a strong playoff run, I don't love their odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions. A huge part of last season's success was predicated on a simple fact: Defenses simply did not have enough resources to shut down both Barkley and Hurts. If you committed enough to shut down Barkley (as we saw in the Super Bowl), Hurts and the receiving corps were poised to get the job done. If you trusted to a more balanced response to these two threats (as we saw in the NFC Championship), Barkley would take over the game with a few big runs. 

But in a league this competitive, it only takes one puff of wind to collapse the whole house of cards. I think it will take the form of an injury to either Hurts or Barkley - more likely Barkley, whose body has just endured an extremely punishing and high-usage season. With seven years under his belt, Barkley is old for a running back, and statistically speaking, a significant decline is reasonable to expect. Without the looming threat of his explosive play, there are several contenders who I believe would have the edge over Philadelphia.

So who's it gonna be?

If I had to pick a team to win it all right now (August 17th), I would have to go with the Buffalo Bills. They have the quarterback talent, and we've seen them get within a couple plays of taking the next step. Allen also has a better injury history the the Ravens' Jackson. For Buffalo, the elephant in the room remains Kansas City. I don't think Kansas City will be good enough this year to break hearts like they have before. Mahomes and company will be good again, but with two teams so evenly matched, I just don't see them pulling off yet another stunning playoff win against the Bills this year, even if the refs are trying to nudge the result. Kansas City has stagnated a little, and the rest of the league is catching up.

Backs are Back

The thing I like most about football is watching running backs run. So what a blessing to be living through a running renaissance. I've already shared my thoughts on a regression for Barkley this year. I have similar concerns for Derrick Henry, but to a lesser extent; I think he will continue to be a key contributor for Baltimore. I loved Ashton Jeanty's college game, but I think he will struggle to make the adjustment to NFL competition, with a positive but not stunning first season in Oakland. Nick Chubb, my favorite RB in the league, is now in Houston. I'm really impressed by CJ Stroud, and I see the Texans being competitive in the AFC. As for Cleveland, I like Jerome Ford better than Quinshon Judkins; neither is at the top level (yet) but I could see Ford developing into a strong contributor.

The question you've all been waiting for: How will the Browns do this year?

The Browns  had a high-publicity draft, taking both Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders for Quarterback. Together with Flacco and Pickett and of course Watson, there are a lot of names at play. Here's my brief take on each QB:

• Gabriel - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Sanders - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Flacco - capable of being an average starter or solid replacement
• Pickett - capable of being a below-average starter or decent replacement
• Watson - capable of being an above-average starter or strong replacement... at my local high school

I've ranted about the incompetence of Browns' ownership before, so I'll keep this brief: having 5  quarterbacks doesn't mean you have a good quarterback. With the Browns still not turning a significant page at Quarterback, and with the beloved Chubb no longer in Cleveland, and with Myles Garrett dissatisfied, I just don't see things getting too much better this year. I think Stefanski is doing a fine job, but it's not enough. The Browns finished 3-14 last year. I'm predicting a 5-12 season, mostly thanks to continuity at head coach, and the possibility that one of the quarterbacks (probably Flacco) will exceed expectations. I think the most obvious path back to playoff competitiveness is a change in ownership, but there is no indication right now that we should hold our breath.

What other surprises do we anticipate?

By virtue of anticipating it, the thing, by definition, is no longer a surprise. But for those few non-readers of this blog, here are some future developments that you might not see coming:

1. Nick Chubb will rush for 1,000 yards. After a few seasons in Texas (and after rebuilding every bone in is knee), Cleveland will realize their folly, bring him back home, and win it all on an Age-35 Nick Chubb touchdown. By this point he will be called "Cyber-Chubb".

2. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will fall short - again. You shouldn't have left Cleveland - at least we know we won't win.

3. The Cleveland Browns will plant the seeds of the future. The Browns will get Arch Manning in the 2026 draft, they will trade for Ashton Jeanty another year later, and begin a renaissance of Cleveland football. Just wait till next year. Or the year after the year after that.

Meie Isa

Artwork from Kloria Publishing "A Mighty Fortress is our God"

"All our shelter and protection rest in prayer alone." - Martin Luther (Large Catechism III)

Bold words from Luther.

All our shelter and protection rest in prayer alone.

We hear about the "Solas" of the Reformation: We believe in the authority of Scripture Alone, which reveals that we are saved by Grace Alone, through Faith Alone, in Christ Alone, and so the Glory is to God Alone.

But where does "prayer alone" fit into all that? Are we adding a sixth "Sola" that pollutes the others with imperfect human works? I don't think so. As always, context is important. Here's what Luther is talking about:

"[The people] become daily more unfit for prayer because of indifference. That is just what the devil desires, and for which he works with all his powers. He is well aware what damage and harm it does him when prayer is done properly. We need to know this: all our shelter and protection rest in prayer alone. For we are far too weak to deal with the devil and all his power and followers who set themselves against us. They might easily crush us under their feet. Therefore, we must consider and take up those weapons with which Christians must be armed in order to stand against the devil." - LC III (CPH)

Far from extolling the power of human efforts, Luther calls us "far too weak" to combat the powers of darkness. Instead, he directs us to prayer. Prayer does not call upon the strength of the horse or the legs of a man to wage war against the darkness. Prayer does not trust in princes. Christian prayer is the most basic active expression of a heart that fears, loves, and trusts in God above all things.

Prayer is grounded in Scripture Alone and flows from it - most especially the Lord's Prayer, and the 150 Psalms that expand upon it. Prayer teaches us to put our trust in Grace Alone, and not in our own strength, good works, or pious efforts. Prayer is the exercise of Faith Alone, just as a son who trusts his earthly Father will come to him with confidence that his needs will be met. Prayer is possible through Christ Alone, because his blood has given us peace with our Father in heaven. In fact, the Gospels reveal that we pray not only through Christ but alongside him. And so in prayer, the glory belongs to God Alone - for it is only he who can help, rescue, deliver, conquer, forgive, renew, and restore. Even the work of prayer itself is not a human invention, nor does it arise from human strength, but from the New Adam, which is a gift of the Holy Spirit.

All our shelter and protection rest in prayer alone. This is not introducing a new "Sola" to the Reformation. Rather, Luther is teaching us how the "Solas" are used in real time. How to do battle. Luther here reveals to us, from the Word of God, the key to spiritual warfare. And he is not inventing something new; the words of Jesus in the garden are squarely behind him: "Watch and pray that you may not enter into temptation. The spirit indeed is willing, but the flesh is weak (Matthew 26:41 ESV)." Peter, of course, does not heed this warning, and I would argue that his fall was a direct result of his indifference. Jesus, on the other hand, prays the third petition of the Lord's Prayer in the garden, and thus is strengthened and prepares himself for the cross.

Consider the words of Paul:  "In all circumstances take up the shield of faith, with which you can extinguish all the flaming darts of the evil one; and take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God, praying at all times in the Spirit, with all prayer and supplication. To that end, keep alert with all perseverance, making supplication for all the saints (Ephesians 6:16-18 ESV)." Here we see the true understanding of prayer, not set against the doctrines of faith and the Word, but flowing from them.

All our shelter and protection rest in prayer alone. Luther's Large Catechism unfolds for us this treasure that Scripture can't seem to stop extolling, and we (or at least I) can't seem to stop ignoring. Consider again, from Paul: "Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus (Philippians 4:6-7 ESV)."

Take up prayer. Most especially, take up the Lord's Prayer and the Psalms. Take them up continually, because God has most solemnly commanded us to pray, and because prayer is absolutely essential as our shelter and protection against the daily darkness of sin, death, and the devil. Take it up, but not as a heavy load that bears down on the soul with the immense weight of its command and obligation. With Jesus Christ as our Lord and Brother, this yoke is easy, and this burden is light. Take up prayer just as the soldier takes up shelter and protection in his King's mighty fortress. Be steadfast in prayer just as the soldier remains steadfast upon the ancient and unbroken walls of solid rock. Forsake the slumber of the heart, reject the enticement of the world, and deride offers to parley from the devils outside the walls. The Christian soldier stands firm, not on the strength of his will, but on the commands and promises of his Father, which find their fulfillment in the cornerstone of this mighty fortress: Jesus, the Christ.

Pray to Our Father, in the mighty Name of Jesus Christ, by the power of the Holy Spirit. Christ is Risen. Amen.

NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals are upon us!

In a better-than-usual playoffs full of competitive games, rivalries, and surprises, The Indiana Pacers will play the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy.

My immediate inclination is to root against the Pacers after they trounced Cleveland on their way to the Finals. But I respect our worthy opponents, and as a former Indiana resident, it would be great to see the Hoosier state bring home a title. I have no bond with OKC, and as the heavy favorites, they also make themselves less palatable. Therefore I will hope for and predict a series win for the Pacers.

I think this series will go all the way. If Indiana manages to beat OKC, I think it will be by very narrow margins. With home-court on their side and superior talent, I think the Thunder will take the first game, overwhelming the Pacers with their dominance on both ends of the court. The Pacers will make adjustments, but I think the Thunder will manage to take both opening games, with the second by a narrower margin. 

Then Indiana will come out in force to cheer on their team at home. I'm hoping the refs will be a little lax with the home crowd and the playoff mentality, meaning less free throws for SGA and a little edge for the Pacers. Indiana will take Game 3, and then win a nail-biter in Game 4. 

Back in Oklahoma City, I think the Thunder take Number 5, then the Pacers Number 6 back in Hoosierland. In other words, everyone wins at home (which is actually not how these playoffs have been going so far. It's OK, I'm used to making terrible predictions.)

Then Game 7. I think it will take a significant injury on the Thunder for the Pacers to make it here and take it all - maybe Gilgeous-Alexander sprains an ankle. Whatever the case, I think the Thunder will take a hit personnel-wise, and Indiana will be ready to take advantage and squeeze out a win in Game 7, with some late-game heroics from Haliburton and company. Pacers in 7.

Then, next year.... CLEVELAND! Keep the core, take it to another level, and let's go all the way.

Update: So close! It was Thunder in 7.