Eliud Kipchoge - Berlin Marathon 2022 Prediction

On September 25th, Eliud Kipchoge will line up for the Berlin Marathon in an attempt to win the race for the fourth time. Kipchoge is the best marathoner the world has ever seen - the first man under 2 hours and the "official" world record holder as well, with a time of 2:01:39 (more on marathon world records another time). He is the two-time Olympic gold medalist and holds a record of 14-2 in marathons across his career. Oh, and he has a 5,000 meter world title, which he won in 2003 against Kenenisa Bekele and Hicham el Guerrouj. Nineteen years later, his latest marathon as of this writing was a casual 2:02:40 course record in Tokyo. Dominance, longevity, world titles, Olympic medals - Kipchoge has it all.

And that's why this upcoming weekend's race - and indeed any race in which Kipchoge enters - is so exciting. Because either you'll get to see a masterclass from the greatest marathoner (runner?) of all time, or you'll get to see an astounding upset of the greatest of all time. Which becomes more likely every year, as Kipchoge is now 37 years old. And since it's Berlin, there is always a chance that the world record will fall.

We know that Kipchoge wants to break his own record. He has professed the desire to run the Majors he hasn't tried yet (Boston and New York), but has instead entered in Berlin again, looking for the fastest course that can produce the fastest times. Perhaps for the last time, Kipchoge will make a bid for one last world record, after already shattering preconceptions of what was thought to be achievable in the timeline of marathon history. His improvements and achievements have vaulted the event into another realm of speed, and he doesn't think he's done yet.

So what will happen on Sunday? Unfortunately, thousands of people will not be attending divine service, choosing instead to run a marathon. Again, that topic needs its own article another day. In terms of the racing, the forecast Sunday morning in Berlin looks good, if a little warm: low 50s and clear, with no significant wind. The competition is strong for Kipchoge, with Guye Adola breathing down his neck and a host of slightly slower East African runners who will be looking to hang with the king. 

Ultimately, I think it comes down to Kipchoge's fitness. We have received no cause to be concerned from his team, and he certainly still has the ceiling to break into 2:01 territory again, based on his recent run in Tokyo. However, world records are rare occurrences in the grand scheme of things, and an element of luck in terms of the pacing and the weather also comes into play.

On the other hand, we're talking about Eliud 1:59:40 Kipchoge. 

One last piece of the puzzle - we shouldn't forget that Kenenisa Bekele ran 2:01:41 in the 2019 Berlin Marathon. While he's not entered in this race, that fact is significant because Kipchoge is a significantly better marathoner than Bekele... implying that if Bekele is capable of a time like this, then Kipchoge - on a great day - should be capable of significantly better.

My prediction: Kipchoge wins his fourth Berlin title with a World Record 2:01:23