Lots of Sports Happening
It's that magical time of year again - late October! The time when all four major sports leagues in the United States are in session at the same time. The NFL is close to midseason, the MLB is closing in on the World Series, and the NHL and NBA are just getting started.
It's time to make some big predictions for the outlook of the National Basketball Association for the season. The current defending champions are the Golden State Warriors, who defeated Eastern Conference Champion Boston Celtics in six games on June 16th. While I wrote a Cavs-specific article several days ago, this one will focus on the big picture of winners and losers this season in the NBA.
Overrated Teams
There will always be teams that overperform and underperform, compared to their preseason expectations. I think the Celtics will take a step backward with the coaching drama; it seems clear to me that Udoka's leadership was a big part of Boston's breakthrough season last year. Tatum is excellent, yes, but he still lacks the initiative and confidence to lead a team on the biggest stage.
Similarly, I think the Clippers out West are viewed with unrealistic optimism. Yes, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard theoretically make for a lethal combination. But these are players who historically have had a lot of trouble staying healthy. Leonard has needed significant regular-season rest to be ready for the playoffs, something I don't think the Clippers can afford if they want to achieve a decent playoff spot. It takes time and minutes on the floor even for a talented group to find cohesion, and minutes on the floor almost certainly mean some level of injury for Leonard and George.
Top Contenders
The way I see it, the top tier of title-contending teams this season will be (in no particular order): Golden State, Milwaukee, Memphis, Miami, Dallas.
Following them are a host of other organizations that probably consider themselves contenders, but are plagued by fatal flaws that will make a Finals run very difficult, barring significant changes. Flaws are listed in parentheses:
Lakers (old LeBron, new coach, injured Davis, Russel Westbrook)
76ers (James Harden)
Nets (3 stars but no leaders)
Celtics (new coach, weak player leadership / experience)
Nuggets (history proves them inferior in the playoffs)
Suns (old Chris Paul, mentally weak Devin Booker)
Clippers (can't stay healthy)
East, West, and Individuals
In the West, I like Golden State's chances best for the Conference Title. I would be tempted to go with Memphis because of their electric young core, but it's so difficult for a team with so little experience to make it all the way. I would go with Dallas, but Dončić is unlikely to have the support necessary to take their season all the way to the Finals, although I have no doubt he will get them close. But in Golden State, we have an incredibly well-proven blend of talents under an all-time great dynastic coach, led by the best point guard in the game (when he's healthy). As is so often the case, the season will come down to injuries, and I think Curry at 34 will have learned to take better care of his body. He will also benefit from the rest that Jordan Poole can afford him as a replacement. Western Conference Champs: Golden State Warriors
In the East, my vote for Conference Champion goes to Miami. No one wants this thing more than the Heat. Jimmy Butler needs a title on a visceral level, and he's the kind of player who can make that happen. The Heat's eclectic mix has consistently outplayed and outperformed teams that were supposed to be better, all the way to a Finals run in 2020 where Butler looked absolutely terrifying. As the championship window begins to close with aging players on the Heat and rising powers in both the East and the West, Miami feels like it needs to make things happen right now. I believe they will find a way to do so. Herro will find a way to take the next step, because Butler needs him to. Adebayo is excellent, and ready to carry his share of the load in a big way. Lowry is smart, experienced, and knows how to bring the team together even as Butler's single-minded pursuit of victory brings tension and trouble. Eastern Conference Champs: Miami Heat
In the MVP race, I think the contest will come down to a mix of familiar and new candidates: Morant, Curry, Dončić, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid. My money (if I were a betting man) would be on Luka Dončić. I mean, come on. The guy looks like he's playing on a different planet sometimes, even against some of the best teams on the planet. Did you see the score on those final two games against the Suns last summer? My goodness. Dončić's team can be successful enough to help his case, and it lacks a strong enough co-star to steal his thunder. MVP: Luka Dončić
The Finals
My prediction is that the 22-23 NBA Finals will feature a showdown between Western Conference Champions Golden State and Eastern Conference Champions Miami. The Heat will beat the Warriors in 7 games to win the championship.
It takes an almost unbelievable, tremendous effort to win even a single NBA title. To slog through yet another season and try to do so for a fifth time is in another realm of difficulty. On the other hand, the Heat have a massive chip on their shoulder and do not have the burden of past victories to weigh them down. They are hungry, talented, well-coached, and led by a player who knows how to flip the switch and become almost unguardable in the playoffs. I don't even particularly like the guy, but this will finally be the season for Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.
My Wife's Predictions
My wife is a very casual NBA fan, but correctly predicted the Toronto Raptors' 2019 title early in the season. On other occasions, her notions and observations surrounding the league have been eerily accurate and truly insightful. So you should know that she has predicted a Bucks vs Grizzlies matchup in the Finals, with the Bucks coming out on top. She also predicted Ja Morant for MVP, another flop of a season for the Lakers, and a very strong showing from the Trail Blazers and Clippers.
Thank you for reading this season preview article. Check back in to see whether any of these guesses turned out to be accurate, and find the predictions that were hilariously wrong! Today is October 18th (1:28am). I will not update this article from this point onward, to keep the predictions honest and uninformed by any regular-season game.
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