10 Miler - Time to Train!

 

I have a race on the calendar!

It was super fun to spectate the 2023 Grand Lake Half Marathon and 5K this past weekend, and I'm excited to get back into training myself. There's nothing quite like a good road race atmosphere - the excitement, the pain, the satisfaction... it's a great time! 

This upcoming race will be a venue and a distance that I have never experienced before - a 10 mile race in Versailles, KY. I've always enjoyed the 10 mile distance in training, and it seems like it would be super cool to race! So I have a 25-week training plan laid out and today is day 1 (off). 

The overall plan is to ease back into good fitness with a realistic amount of time commitment and a fairly wide variety of what I would have formerly considered "cross-training". Currently I work out only about twice a week - a run and a few rounds on the heavy bag.

I will be doing 6 days a week from the start, with 3 days running and 3 days on other activities. By the end of the plan, it will still be 6 days a week but with 4 days running (higher mileage than now, obviously) and also a higher volume of everything else. I'm pretty psyched about the plan and think it's a good one. It's all about the execution now.

"Get a program and go slowly by slowly" - Eliud Kipchoge (5x Berlin Champ)

I'm trying to take the long view. I will never match my best performances from college off of 4 runs a week. At the same time, I probably don't have time for more with the way I currently operate the rest of my life. On top of that, my body is far-removed from being accustomed to daily mileage. If I can ease my mind, body, and routines back into rhythm, I think I can look ahead to one day matching and then exceeding my collegiate fitness. Or at least close enough for it to be really fun again.

If I really nail this training plan, it will give me a solid level of all-around baseline fitness to pick up more boxing and more roadwork over the late spring and summer. I could get back up to 6 days a week running over the summer, and then try to maintain that when fall 2024 arrives. Then I could try to go for a fast Grand Lake Half, or find another 10 miler in the fall. I can dilly dally around the 10 mile distance for a few years and use that time to slowly build back my fitness and see how low I can get that PR. Then, when the time is right, God-willing, I can pick up the mileage and get into marathon and ultra training again. The most compelling items on my bucket list right now are as follows, in order of current interest:

1. 10 mile racing

2. 1/2 marathon racing

3. 50 miles under 12 hours

4. BQ

5. 100 miles under 24 hours

6. PRs in the 400,800,1600,3200,5000

One story that has stuck with me was from my brother's old basketball coach - Coach Januzzi. He qualified for Boston Marathon with a simple and brutally effective training plan: 10 miles a day, every day. 

I don't think I've run 10 miles since my 50 miler two Marches ago! That one must have really done a number on me.

My first test will be a 10 mile Time Trial at the end of Week 6 of training. That will give me a realistic picture of where I'm at and where I can go before the Lucky Leprechaun arrives. I need 6 solid weeks of training between now and then.

It's time to come back - but not in such a way that the Psalms or my actual work become a lower priority. Rather, I think fitness can be a positive and salutary pursuit for me. 

Lord, have mercy.

Berlin Marathon 2023 - Kipchoge Preview

The Eliud Kipchoge show is back on the air this weekend.

On Sunday morning Eliud Kipchoge will make his sixth run at what would appear to be his favorite race: Berlin. Here is how he has fared in his five previous outings:

2013    2:04:05    2nd

2015    2:04:00    1st

2017    2:03:33    1st

2018    2:01:39    1st (WR)

2022    2:01:09    1st (WR)

What stands out to me is that, as (at least) a 39-year-old, Kipchoge has gotten faster every single year in Berlin. Those last two times, most recently last year, resulted in absolutely ground-shaking World Records.

On the other hand, Kipchoge is looking more vulnerable now than ever before. Coming off a disappointing 6th place in Boston, there are legitimate questions about the long-long-long-awaited beginning of his decline. Additionally, the super-shoe era has seen his East African compatriots coming closer to his world records, and the times do not look quite as much the outliers as they did in 2018 and 2022. 

With that being said, Eliud Kipchoge is the clear favorite here, as he has been in every race he's entered since 2015 or so.

I don't anticipate him setting another world record, although it is possible if the conditions are good and he's feeling it. The ceiling for him would be the first ever sub-2:01 marathon on a normal course. As far as we can tell, the floor is probably 2:09, which he ran in Boston (a slower course). 

My prediction: Kipchoge takes home Win #5 in Berlin with a time of 2:01:54.

***Update: Kipchoge won in 2:02:42***

Kipchoge picked Berlin because it provides better spacing to allow for another spring marathon before the Olympics, where he is searching for his 3rd gold. I wish he would have gone for New York instead, but I get the appeal of the unprecedented triple. The rest of his career, based on previous interviews, may play out as follows:

March 2024 - Tokyo

August 2024 - Olympics (Paris)

November 2024 - New York

April 2025 - Boston

Fall 2025 - 1st Ultramarathon

Unfortunately, it will probably be some time before he takes on another 26.2 on US soil. There's a chance he'll pick Boston instead of Tokyo 2024, but it's probably too close to the Olympics.

Chubb Goes Down

Pray for Nick Chubb.

After a brutal knee injury, Chubb is out for the season and may never again even be the same player. It's not quite the Cavs losing LeBron, but essentially takes all the wind out of the sails from Cleveland's Week 1 win over the Bengals. Watson is still not playing well, and with Chubb out, the Browns' offensive engine is gone. My season preview had the Browns at 10-7. Now I do not at all expect them to break .500. 

Also add another 2-5 years to my Browns Super Bowl Champion prediction. Get your hopes up for Super Bowl LXIV. 

A Life of Prayer

6 On another Sabbath, [Jesus] entered the synagogue and was teaching, and a man was there whose right hand was withered. 7 And the scribes and the Pharisees watched him, to see whether he would heal on the Sabbath, so that they might find a reason to accuse him. 8 But he knew their thoughts, and he said to the man with the withered hand, “Come and stand here.” And he rose and stood there. 9 And Jesus said to them, “I ask you, is it lawful on the Sabbath to do good or to do harm, to save life or to destroy it?” 10 And after looking around at them all he said to him, “Stretch out your hand.” And he did so, and his hand was restored. 11 But they were filled with fury and discussed with one another what they might do to Jesus.

12 In these days he went out to the mountain to pray, and all night he continued in prayer to God. 13 And when day came, he called his disciples and chose from them twelve, whom he named apostles: 14 Simon, whom he named Peter, and Andrew his brother, and James and John, and Philip, and Bartholomew, 15 and Matthew, and Thomas, and James the son of Alphaeus, and Simon who was called the Zealot, 16 and Judas the son of James, and Judas Iscariot, who became a traitor.

Luke 6:6-16 ESV

Cleveland Browns 23-24 Season Preview

 

Since I tend to do Cavs season previews, I thought I should write one for the Cleveland Browns, as well.

The Browns sold their soul in exchange for DeShaun Watson last year. I think it was a terrible idea and now we all have to live with it. While I don't think Watson is the franchise quarterback we are always hoping for, his presence combined with Myles Garrett, other roster upgrades, and the 10,000 horsepower engine that is Nick Chubb might be enough for another trip to the playoffs.

The Haslam family has proven incapable of leading an NFL organization that behaves in a consistent and professional manner, and we will likely have to wait for their replacement before the Browns make it all the way. But in hope, I am going to say that the Haslams have a change of heart before the end of Chubb's career so that we can have a shot at winning it all. Or they decide to finally pass the torch.

For now, we have to focus on the year ahead. Here are 5 predictions about the upcoming 23-24 NFL season:

1. Nick Chubb will rush for "[only]" 1,100 yards. Chubb is such a potent offensive weapon, but the Browns have criminally underused him in favor of the modern passing craze in recent years. With Watson in the fold, I think that Chubb's role will be reduced from last year, although they will give him more receiving opportunities. 

2. Deshaun Watson will not reach 4,000 passing yards. He is mentally weak, and does not have the discipline to make the most of his talent, in my opinion. He will also probably be injured for a couple games.

3. The Cincinnati Bengals will win the Super Bowl. Hey, at least it's another Ohio team. They are better-positioned right now and have unfinished business to attend to. The Chiefs were weak in their opener and the Eagles are not an Ohio team. That leaves us with the Bengals as the next-best option.

4. The Browns will go 10-7 in the regular season. They will be better than last year, but not by a ton, especially playing in such a competitive division.

5. The Browns will be eliminated in the second round of the playoffs. But that means they will win in the first round! 

In other words, I think the Browns will bounce back, but not in a massive way. It will be a good enough season for them to keep Watson and Stefanski, but the Browns will never be a tip-top team while Watson is quarterback. If nothing else, the power brokers in the NFL will see to it that they never let someone with Watson's reputation win a Super Bowl.

Give it another few years, Cleveland. We'll get there.

But don't wait too long! I want to see Nick Chubb plowing into the end zone to win Super Bowl LX for the Cleveland Browns.

***Update***

Prediction 1 - WRONG (Chubb was injured early in the season)

Prediction 2 - RIGHT (Deshaun Watson didn't do a thing, as usual)

Prediction 3 - WRONG (Chiefs won)

Prediction 4 - WRONG (But almost: 11-6)

Prediction 5 - WRONG (Lost in the first round)