The Eliud Kipchoge show is back on the air this weekend.
On Sunday morning Eliud Kipchoge will make his sixth run at what would appear to be his favorite race: Berlin. Here is how he has fared in his five previous outings:
2013 2:04:05 2nd
2015 2:04:00 1st
2017 2:03:33 1st
2018 2:01:39 1st (WR)
2022 2:01:09 1st (WR)
What stands out to me is that, as (at least) a 39-year-old, Kipchoge has gotten faster every single year in Berlin. Those last two times, most recently last year, resulted in absolutely ground-shaking World Records.
On the other hand, Kipchoge is looking more vulnerable now than ever before. Coming off a disappointing 6th place in Boston, there are legitimate questions about the long-long-long-awaited beginning of his decline. Additionally, the super-shoe era has seen his East African compatriots coming closer to his world records, and the times do not look quite as much the outliers as they did in 2018 and 2022.
With that being said, Eliud Kipchoge is the clear favorite here, as he has been in every race he's entered since 2015 or so.
I don't anticipate him setting another world record, although it is possible if the conditions are good and he's feeling it. The ceiling for him would be the first ever sub-2:01 marathon on a normal course. As far as we can tell, the floor is probably 2:09, which he ran in Boston (a slower course).
My prediction: Kipchoge takes home Win #5 in Berlin with a time of 2:01:54.
***Update: Kipchoge won in 2:02:42***
Kipchoge picked Berlin because it provides better spacing to allow for another spring marathon before the Olympics, where he is searching for his 3rd gold. I wish he would have gone for New York instead, but I get the appeal of the unprecedented triple. The rest of his career, based on previous interviews, may play out as follows:
March 2024 - Tokyo
August 2024 - Olympics (Paris)
November 2024 - New York
April 2025 - Boston
Fall 2025 - 1st Ultramarathon
Unfortunately, it will probably be some time before he takes on another 26.2 on US soil. There's a chance he'll pick Boston instead of Tokyo 2024, but it's probably too close to the Olympics.
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