It's that time again!
The NBA playoffs have come to their culmination. The Dallas Mavericks beat the Timberwolves 4-1 and the Boston Celtics beat the Pacers 4-0 to set up a really fun Finals matchup.
Back on February 9th, after Kyrie went to the Mavericks, I wrote, "The Mavericks are the new favorites in the West." My sports predictions are not often right, but this time it played out the way you'd expect. The Mavericks' run reminds me of some of the LeBron / Kyrie years with the Cavs: rarely at the top of their conference, but nearly unstoppable come playoff time. And Luka is a player of that caliber, capable of taking over an entire series. He's found an excellent partner in crime with Kyrie, and I think the two of them are going to have a lot of guys in Boston a little nervous.
At the same time, let's not forget the historically great regular season that Boston turned in. They've been the team to beat all year, and have waltzed through the playoffs up to this point. With such a deep, well-rounded, built-to-win roster, it's hard to bet against the Celtics.
I have a sweet spot for Kyrie from his days in Cleveland, and Doncic has been super fun since he first entered the league. In other words, I am biased. But aside from those factors, here's why I think the Dallas Mavericks will win the 2024 NBA Title.
Best Duo + Good Team
On way to look at a recipe for a Championship-caliber team is to have the best possible duo, surrounded by good players. Think Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Steph and KD, LeBron and Kyrie, Jokic and Murray. Well, Dallas has the best duo in this matchup in Luka and Kyrie. While Tatum and Brown are undeniably excellent, I don't think many would argue that Tatum has risen to Luka's heights, or Brown to Kyrie's. So Dallas has the edge in terms of a star one-two punch. But almost as promising has been the level of contribution from the rest of the team. The 2017 Cavs taught is that it doesn't matter how good your 1-2 is, if the other team also has a great 1-2 but a vastly superior 3-4-5. For these Finals, I would say that Dallas has a decisive advantage with the 1-2, and only a slight disadvantage on the 3-4-5-6. To me, that's a recipe for success.
The Game is About Buckets
One of the things that makes Dallas's 1-2 punch superior is their ability to shoot the basketball into the bucket. Not to state the obvious, but as Uncle Drew would say, the game is about buckets. It sets off little alarm bells with me when I'm hearing all the praises sung for some exciting new player, but then "he's not a great shooter." Oh. So the one thing you absolutely need to win basketball games, that's not what he's about. If shooting isn't your strong suit, good luck facing up against Luka and Kyrie in the playoffs. Those guys just know how to get buckets. And they know it better than Tatum, or Brown, or anyone else on the Celtics roster. I trust the Mavericks more than the Celtics to put the ball in the bucket in crunch time with the game on the line.
The Mind of a Champion
Especially when the lights are the brightest, the mind plays a huge role in success or failure. If two teams or individuals are closely matched in terms of physical ability, the mentally stronger team or individual will almost always win. I think both Boston and Dallas have players and coaches with great mental stability, focus, and strength. But the two individuals who I think will have the greatest influence on the outcome of the Finals are Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. Doncic thrives in high-pressure situations. He wants the big shot, and he knows he can make it. And Tatum wants the shot, too, but the difference is that he wants to prove to the world that he can make it. Remember last year, when Tatum said, "I'm humbly one of the best basketball players in the world." That's a line that you hear from a guy who is trying to convince himself of the fact. Curry doesn't need to say that. Kawhi in 2019 didn't need to say that. And Doncic doesn't need to say that, because he knows it to be true. He's not trying to convince you, and more importantly he's not trying to convince himself. He already has that confidence. A little mental edge like that can be the difference between winning and losing, between finding the right moment or chucking up a prayer, between making and missing.
I will say that if Jayson Tatum can overcome his mental demons, I think the Celtics will win it all. But the inconsistent nature of his playoff performances tells me he's not there yet.
How it Happens
To finish, I'll briefly break down how I expect the Finals to play out.
Game 1: Celtics win due to superior overall talent and ability. They are physically and mentally fresh, not yet worn down by the fear and uncertainty that Kyrie and Luka will inspire in them. (Right - Celtics won)
Game 2: Mavericks win due to a big game from Luka. He gets buckets, he takes names, and he is not going to let Dallas go down 2-0 in his long-awaited first Finals. (Wrong - Celtics won)
Game 3: Mavericks win as the home crowd gets into Boston's head a little, Kyrie has his first big game on the stat sheet, and the Celtics fight hard but fall short. (Wrong - Celtics won)
Game 4: Celtics win as Tatum has his biggest game of the series, the Mavericks get a little worn down, and Boston gets used to the crowd's pressure. (Wrong - Mavericks won. This is why I should not try sports betting.)
Game 5: Mavericks win in Boston, as Luka takes pleasure in silencing the raucous crowd and he and Kyrie drop bucket after bucket late in the game. Boston can't keep up, and the mental demons are starting to show in Tatum and company.
Game 6: Mavericks win it all. Boston plays desperately to try to avoid a heartbreaking elimination. Brown has his best game of the series. But Luka plays viciously and with absolute unstoppable bucketry to put it away once and for all. Kyrie plays with cold and Mamba-mentality machine-like bucket-making wizardry to help seal the win. Final score 119-107. Luka pours in 34, Kyrie with 30. Luka wins Finals MVP and his first ring. Kyrie and Dallas each win their second championship.
What's Next?
If Doncic wins this year, he may be setting up a dynasty in Dallas. The world is starting to realize just how special Luka is. Kyrie is 32. And Luka is only 25 years old. I'm guessing they have at least one more title together in their future, especially if they finish the job this year. I'm guessing that Luka will retire with 5 championships to his name.
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