With teams about 70% through the regular season, we get a little respite to enjoy the All-Star festivities, and analyze how the title chase is going so far. The top 10 overall teams in the leagues by win percentage on All-Star weekend are:
1. Celtics 71.2% (East)
2. Bucks 70.7% (East)
3. Nuggets 69.5% (West)
4. 76ers 66.7% (East)
5. Cavs 62.3% (East)
6. Grizzlies 61.4% (West)
7. Nets 58.6% (East)
8. Kings 56.1% (West)
9. Knicks 55.0% (East)
10. Heat 54.2% (East)
Overall, the Eastern Conference is certainly dominating the league at this juncture with 7 of the top 10 and 4 of the top 5 records. But the middle pack of the league is extremely tight, and it's still anyone's guess who could come out of the woodwork, especially with the recent reshaping of the Suns and Mavericks. Neither of them make this list (yet) and LeBron is also noticeably left off.
Oh, and there's some team out of San Francisco sitting 9th in the West right now.
In a year with no clear favorite for the title, there are very few teams that really aren't at least in the playoff conversation. Both the East and the West have a pair of bottom-2 teams that are at least 12 percentage points below their next competitor. Everyone else has a reasonable shot at the play-in at worst.
Historically speaking, I think the title favorites at this point in the season have to be the Celtics and Bucks. I know it's not very exciting to say this as they own the top 2 overall records. But it's more than just the record. Both teams have very recent Finals experience. Both teams have stars with better than average injury history. And both teams are well-coached and have had time to gel together over the last few years. If I could pick one at this point, I'd say Boston is likely to win back-to-back Eastern Conference titles.
In the West, I honestly don't love any of the three top seeds (Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Kings). I know that Suns are supposed to be favorites now, but I don't trust them to stay healthy. My money would be on Luka and Kyrie's Mavericks. Again, we have a relatively low injury risk (and Kyrie has had plenty of rest for other reasons) and some really stunning star power leading the team.
If we do end up with Celtics vs Mavericks, I think it'll be a total tossup decided on a mid-series injury, a critical call from an overzealous ref, or a single shot or two. It's the uncomfortable truth that far more of the close games come down to things out of the players' control than we'd like to admit.
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