In an absolute stunner, Kenya's Evans Chebet took down Kipchoge and the field to win the Boston Marathon on Monday in 2:05:54. Chebet is now the back-to-back Boston champ, and this continues a remarkable run by him as he also won New York last year.
Kipchoge faded to 6th place with an apparent upper-leg issue (according to his post-race interview) and finished in a time of 2:09:23.
Evans Chebet is the real deal. It's not uncommon to have a tier of top East Africans tearing it up on London and Berlin, and then another tier of slightly slower runners winning at Boston and New York. Of course, those two American courses are by nature slower, as well. But this year, Chebet was racing the very best of marathoning - Kipchoge of course, as well as a former London champ and other majors champs - and came out decisively on top.
Kipchoge seems to think that the upper leg issue was an isolated problem that derailed his race. He seems unconcerned about the missed bottle when he was passed, his extreme speed in the early downhills, and his front-running into the headwind. Regardless of what he may think, it seems possible that his issue was indeed caused by surprising his body with his usual tactics on a new kind of course. Thankfully, he has said he wants to return to Boston for another shot at victory... but will he fare any better a year or two older, and unwilling to change his tactics?
New York is in November. Boston is of course next April, and the Olympics will be next August in Paris. Then we have New York again that November. Let's look at the spacing, with potential race months that Kipchoge has mentioned in bold:
- April '23 - Boston
- May
- June
- July
- August
- September
- October
- November '23 - New York
- December
- January '24
- February
- March
- April '24 - Boston
- May
- June
- July
- August '24 - Olympics
There is plenty of time left to bounce back before New York, but Kipchoge said he is unsure now about pursuing that race. If he does run New York, there is a troublingly short 4-month gap before Boston, and then only 3 months before the Olympics.
This schedule seems unrealistic. Kipchoge will likely have to choose between Boston and the Olympics.
Here's my guess and predictions for the rest of his marathoning career:
November 2023 - New York: 3rd in 2:05 after once again attempting to front-run with a fast pace early on in difficult weather, and paying the price later
March 2024 - Tokyo: 1st in 2:04 in a close race
August 2024 - Paris (Olympics): 1st in 2:07 after getting wise and running a brilliant tactical race to win his 3rd Olympic marathon gold
April 2024 - Boston: 1st in 2:04 to end his career with some front running but a smarter race and more familiarity with the course
Kipchoge is such a joy to watch. I'm excited to see how he responds to the challenge of his 3rd ever marathon loss.
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