2023 NBA Conference Finals

 

Here we go again.

The 2023 Conference Finals have arrived, and as noted by "The Sporting News" on Twitter, this will be an exact replay of the 2020 Bubble Conference Finals. The seeding is different, and some of the players have changed - but the teams and their stars are the same. Here's how that postseason played out:

• Heat beat the Celtics in 6
• Lakers beat the Nuggets in 5
• Lakers beat the Heat to win the title in 6

Is there reason to suspect anything different from the last time this happened? What are the big storylines going in? Who, if anyone, is the favorite to win it all? Here's my analysis:

The Favorite

Current betting odds think the title favorites are the Boston Celtics, followed by the Nuggets, the Lakers, and finally the Heat. At this point it's so difficult to make a call. Every team has run through a gauntlet and overcome so much to be here. For me, I think the oddsmakers are not taking history into account quite enough. Eric Spoelstra has proven that he knows how to solve this Celtics team, like he did in 2020. LeBron is almost impossible to beat in a conference finals matchup, as he's proven... 10 times? Dang. I'm taking the two "underdogs": Lakers and Heat. I also need to name an overall favorite though for this subtitle to be accurate, and for that one I'll go against history. Jimmy Butler was my prediction before the season started, and I feel like I can't really say anything else considering how far he's come. The guy wants his ring, and there may never be another chance for him to make it happen.

The Favorite: Miami Heat

The Big Question - Lakers vs Nuggets

Each series will be hard-fought between two all-world basketball teams. For me, the defining question in the Lakers vs Nuggets matchup is: Has Jokic learned to get out the sledgehammer? Think of the last two rounds as a giant brick wall. Most teams, trying to get past the wall, will eventually be beaten - they'll look for a gap, try to climb, halfheartedly beat it with their fists, etc. Many very skilled players, like Jokic, are able to get almost all the way to the pinnacle, but when they get to the brick wall, their maneuvering and skill and prowess just isn't enough. However, there are a select few players who, at this point, pick up a sledgehammer and start bashing the wall to pieces. In other words, they find a way. It's about something more than your observable basketball skill set. It's a mental thing. LeBron has it. Curry has it. Has Jokic found it? That's his only hope. Being an MVP caliber player isn't enough at this level. You need an MVP caliber mindset.

The Big Question - Heat vs Celtics

Talk about another guy who is going to find a way - Jimmy Buckets. He has not yet had a team around him that enables him to finish that final push for a ring. We've seen it so many times with LeBron, like in 2018 where he was clearly the most dominant and greatest player on the floor the whole playoffs. The Cavs just didn't have the personnel to finish the job. While the greatest do have to find a way, they can't do it all on their own. This year, I think the Heat as a whole have enough to make it happen. But not if the Celtics play to their potential. Which brings me to the big question: Will the Celtics lock in for four games? At their best, I think the Celtics might be the best team in the league. But will Tatum have another off night? Will Smart disappear offensively for a game? Because when you're facing a team like the Heat, they will take advantage of any and every chink in your armor, expose it, and use it to beat you (as they have in the past). If the Celtics play inconsistently, the Heat will pick them apart. Have they matured enough to turn in four performances with their top guys locked in and playing to their potential? We'll find out pretty soon.

 A Deserving Winner

At this point in the competition, I think every team would be very much deserving, if they were to finish the job. With the Cavs out, it's hard for me to get too fired up against anyone (besides the Warriors, our old rivals). LeBron is constantly bashed for his "lack" of rings, and a win here would be the crowing achievement of his incredible resume. Butler has been taking names in the playoffs for years, and this would finally be the payoff for all his hard work. Jokic has had doubters (like me) after every playoff elimination, and this would confirm the legitimacy of his MVP trophies. And the Celtics came so close last year, and have carefully developed their core for a few years in preparation for a moment just like this. My ranking of preferred winners would be Heat, Lakers, Celtics, Nuggets. 

Go Cavs

The Celtics are living proof that it takes time to develop a talented core and bring them all the way to the top of the sport. With their early playoff exit as evidence, I think the Cavs have some serious maturing to do before they get to that point. My advice? Keep Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, and Garland together. DO NOT BLOW UP THE TEAM. Give them the years they need to develop and mature together. I think they'll put up some better playoff showings in the future, and by the 2025 or 2026 Finals, it may be their time for a title run. My only real question mark with them is Bickerstaff. He seems to perhaps struggle to recognize his own shortcomings in playoff games. He might need time too, or he might just need a replacement. Time will tell.