Saturday, April 22, 2023

Garcia vs Davis

 


Tonight will mark possibly the biggest fight of the year: "Tank" Davis vs "King" Ryan. I was not following these boxers before this fight, and in the week leading up to it I've been catching up with the storylines.

I do not have a great deal of respect for either man. Garcia makes his money essentially as a male Instagram model and doesn't show a ton of poise or professionalism in his interviews. Davis likewise speaks with a nasty temper and also has a bad habit of hitting women who make him angry.

I'd much rather support the Instagram star than the abuser.

Davis has the edge in overall skill, experience, and raw power. Garcia has the edge in size and speed.

My prediction a Garcia win by TKO in Round 8.

It seems like it should be a very close fight, but we'll have to see! Should be starting in just a few minutes.

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

This is lame...

 



Have you noticed the trend of blowout NBA Playoff games in recent years?

If you haven't become aware of this truly terrible new playoff tradition, perhaps there's an article out there doing some deep dive on the trend. I'll just bring up a few examples, first being the Heat vs Bucks score that I just checked on a few minutes ago. Keep in mind that the Heat won Game 1, and are led by one of the most hungry playoff competitors we've ever seen, and Giannis isn't even playing. But here we are, watching the Heat hand over a 32-point lead in the 2nd quarter of a playoff game?

Just browsing through last year's various playoff series, it's truly stunning how many blowouts show up in almost every series, and from both teams! Suns vs Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals is particularly brutal, and it culminated in one of the most infamous playoff blowouts in recent memory. Here are the highlights:

Game 1 - Suns win by 7

Game 2 - Suns win by 20

Game 3 - Mavericks win by 9

Game 4 - Mavericks win by 10

Game 5 - Suns win by 21

Game 6 - Mavericks win by 27

Game 7 - Mavericks win by 33


How do you account for a games like these? The answer is simple and pathetic, but everyone knows it and lives with it: Once an NBA team thinks a playoff win is unlikely, they phone it in for the night and begin conserving energy and resources for the next game.

It has led to some of the most unentertaining and cowardly playoff series you can imagine. In the above Suns vs Mavericks series, the teams essentially took turns letting one another win for four games, with the only real efforts coming in games 1, 3, and 4. Maybe they put in the work for a quarter, maybe two. But in today's load-management NBA, better to give up and stay healthy than fight to the end. 

This is a serious problem for the NBA. It's hard to generate hype for a game that you know has a 50/50 chance of being an intentional blowout for either your team or the opponent. I would have much more respect for (and much more enjoyment watching) a team that plays hard, honest basketball for 4 quarters, night in and night out. Not only that, but players that play hard for 82 games, or close to it. Imagine if regular employees took as much time off work as these multimillionaire pro athletes. No one wants to see the Heat's bench mixing it up with the Bucks' bench, with the game already decided before its halfway point. That's not playoff basketball.

A different but related problem is tanking, especially in the leadup to the NBA draft. Once again, we have teams intentionally losing games for a perceived longer-term benefit.


A New Culture


Know who this guy is? Probably not unless you're a serious NBA fan or casual Suns or Nets fan. He's Mikal Bridges, and he hasn't missed a game for 392 consecutive games. The guy doesn't take days off, or games off. He shows up and puts in work every night. 

That's the kind of culture the league needs to (re?)discover. A culture where it would be almost unthinkable, and absolutely un-classy to rest when healthy, or to give up on a game in the 2nd quarter. The problem is, our modern stars aren't in that mindset. Mikal Bridges isn't a big enough name to get the movement going. The biggest names like LeBron, Curry, Durant, Leonard, Jokic, etc. are all willing to go on with this little game.


A New Star

This is a league that grows and diminishes with the rise and fall of generational star players like Jordan, Kobe, and LeBron. We need a new generational player, a guy who pushes back against the load management era and competes hard every night in the spirit of MJ and the Black Mamba. Giannis is probably the new top dog, but he is renowned more for his physical abilities than his hustle and consistency in showing up. We need another guru, a guy with the talent to be the very best but the old-fashioned work ethic to dig the modern NBA out of its blowout-trading, always-resting, injury-prevention era. Maybe a guy like Evan Mobley, who played 79 games this season and is full of particularly defensive potential.


Just Stop

One way or another, I hope that the NBA as a whole realizes how pathetic its playoffs have often become, and does something to address it. It's a bit of a buzz kill to head into the playoffs each year filled anticipation, only to have your excitement fizzle out as the blowout trade game begins. Let's watch some real basketball, please.

NBA Playoffs - Here we go!

 


It's playoff time!

Way back before the first regular season game, I predicted a Heat vs Warriors Finals, with the Heat winning it all.

Well, the playoffs have arrived, and here is the bracket, with teams matched up and the current number of wins in each series listed in parentheses. East is on the left (confusingly) and West is on the right: 


Bucks (0)                                                                                                                 Nuggets (1)

Miami (1)                                                                                                                Timberwolves (0)

                                

Cavs (1)                                                                                                                    Suns (0)

Knicks (1)                                                                                                                 Clippers (1)


76ers (2)                                                                                                                    Kings (2)

Nets (0)                                                                                                                      Warriors (0)


Celtics (2)                                                                                                                   Grizzlies (0)

Hawks (0)                                                                                                                   Lakers (1)


So the Heat vs Warriors matchup is still possible. However, I can't say I really expect it at this point. Here are my predictions for the remainder of the playoffs, based on the whole regular season, previous playoff performances, and the games that have been played so far this postseason:


  • Bucks, Cavs, 76ers, Celtics, Nuggets, Clippers, Kings, Lakers  (Round 1)
  • Bucks, Celtics, Clippers, Lakers (Round 2)
  • Celtics, Clippers (Round 3)
  • Celtics (Round 4)




Tuesday, April 18, 2023

2023 Boston Marathon Results

 

In an absolute stunner, Kenya's Evans Chebet took down Kipchoge and the field to win the Boston Marathon on Monday in 2:05:54. Chebet is now the back-to-back Boston champ, and this continues a remarkable run by him as he also won New York last year.

Kipchoge faded to 6th place with an apparent upper-leg issue (according to his post-race interview) and finished in a time of 2:09:23.

Evans Chebet is the real deal. It's not uncommon to have a tier of top East Africans tearing it up on London and Berlin, and then another tier of slightly slower runners winning at Boston and New York. Of course, those two American courses are by nature slower, as well. But this year, Chebet was racing the very best of marathoning - Kipchoge of course, as well as a former London champ and other majors champs - and came out decisively on top.

Kipchoge seems to think that the upper leg issue was an isolated problem that derailed his race. He seems unconcerned about the missed bottle when he was passed, his extreme speed in the early downhills, and his front-running into the headwind. Regardless of what he may think, it seems possible that his issue was indeed caused by surprising his body with his usual tactics on a new kind of course. Thankfully, he has said he wants to return to Boston for another shot at victory... but will he fare any better a year or two older, and unwilling to change his tactics?

New York is in November. Boston is of course next April, and the Olympics will be next August in Paris. Then we have New York again that November. Let's look at the spacing, with potential race months that Kipchoge has mentioned in bold:

  • April '23 - Boston
  • May
  • June
  • July
  • August
  • September
  • October
  • November '23 - New York
  • December
  • January '24
  • February
  • March
  • April '24 - Boston
  • May
  • June
  • July
  • August '24 - Olympics

There is plenty of time left to bounce back before New York, but Kipchoge said he is unsure now about pursuing that race. If he does run New York, there is a troublingly short 4-month gap before Boston, and then only 3 months before the Olympics.

This schedule seems unrealistic. Kipchoge will likely have to choose between Boston and the Olympics.

Here's my guess and predictions for the rest of his marathoning career:


November 2023 - New York: 3rd in 2:05 after once again attempting to front-run with a fast pace early on in difficult weather, and paying the price later

March 2024 - Tokyo: 1st in 2:04 in a close race

August 2024 - Paris (Olympics): 1st in 2:07 after getting wise and running a brilliant tactical race to win his 3rd Olympic marathon gold

April 2024 - Boston: 1st in 2:04 to end his career with some front running but a smarter race and more familiarity with the course


Kipchoge is such a joy to watch. I'm excited to see how he responds to the challenge of his 3rd ever marathon loss.


Thursday, April 13, 2023

Boston Marathon 2023 Preview


Letsrun.com has already published this race preview and this Kipchoge piece, both of which I think are excellent. I just feel the need to throw in my two cents before the big race.

In case you missed it, Eliud Kipchoge, the marathon legend who I have written about previously on this blog, will be running the Boston Marathon for the first time this Monday, April 17th. I was really thinking about taking a day off work and flying to Boston to see it happen - it's that big a deal - but it is not to be. I'm just psyched to see what happens. 

Kipchoge is going up against a field with excellent Boston experience, excellent World Marathon Majors experience, excellent overall speed, and even a runner who has beaten him (the 2020 London marathon champ, Shura Kitata).

My prediction? Kipchoge wins Boston with a time of 2:04:20.

Th weather and wind may not be great, so he will be content with running a little "slow." We know that his goal is to win, and he doesn't want to prove anything else in terms of hitting fast times.

There will be a highly competitive pack out front, and I bet he'll have a couple guys hanging with him even into miles 20, 21, and 22. But somewhere in those last 2-4 miles, I think he will show the world again what he is capable of.

Bring on the hills.

Saturday, April 8, 2023

The Degeneration of 21st Century Fantasy

 


Modern fantasy has taken a turn for the worse in the 2000s.

Never have high fantasy novels been so complex, in-depth, and all-absorbing. Never have fantasy and sci-fi board games been so multilayered, morally gray, and focused on realism. Brandon Sanderson drops a new release and you find yourself disappointed if it's not over 1,000 pages with 6 layers of political intrigue. Twilight Imperium comes out with its latest edition and you can already imagine yourself absorbed in the seventh hour of continuous gameplay. Hundreds upon hundreds of passionate fans take to the internet with their analysis, critiques, nitpicks, theories, and predictions, arguing as passionately as they would about any real-life topic.

What on [Middle] earth is happening? Was fantasy always like this? Is this what fantasy is all about?

Maybe today. But at its best, fantasy can be something much different... something much more.


The Problem

Each generation tends to think that the next is worse than those who came before, so arguments of the following nature need to be approached carefully. But I do believe that one fairly unique characteristic of young men and women today is that their lives are increasingly lived in a fake world. For many years, if they so desired, the literate and not-very-busy upper class could delve into an imaginary world of books. But never before has the majority of young American people spent so much of their time living a fake life.

Pretending to be fake characters in a fake world on a manmade screen. Twiddling their fingers around to live out their fantasies through these characters. Watching people watch people pretend to be fake characters in a fake world a screen, within a screen [because eventually you realize that the fake world isn't giving you the fulfillment you want, but maybe someone else will pretend to be fulfilled for you]. Discussing the various fake events of a fake TV show. Moving around fake characters on a fake board to accomplish fake objectives and win a fake game. Or reading about a fake world and wondering how the fake characters will overcome their fake obstacles.

Sounds pretty bleak? No wonder we find the real world so difficult to cope with - as if it wasn't hard enough already, the escapes are so numerous and so realistic that it's hard to resist...


The Shift

Fantasy has always offered an escape into a mythical world. But something has changed. Young people have increasingly distanced themselves from the real world as they grow more attached to fictional ones. Instead of using fantasy to escape and learn about the real world, modern creators are now building fantasies to replace the real world.

Think about it. You turn the last page in Return of the King, put the book down, and bask in the glow of such high and beautiful literature. You have internalized the characters and their lessons, and loved your time walking through the woods and mountains of Middle Earth. At times, your thoughts will escape back into that incredible land. But more importantly, you will be encouraged in your walk across this land. You will remember Sam's steadfastness, Aragorn's leadership, Frodo's courage, and desire to become like them in some small way. You will be reminded of the stark reality of good and evil, light and shadow, and resolve to stand against the overwhelming darkness around you. 

That is fantasy's potential. That is fantasy's purpose. To impact, instruct, inspire, and yes, to provide a good and restful escape for the weary soul. It teaches truth, it delivers beauty, and it inspires goodness.

Contrast this with the offerings of modern fantasy. I loved The Way of Kings by Sanderson but found that as the Stormlight Archive went on, it became less about the values listed above and more about the world itself, the plot itself, the characters themselves. Sure he tries to work in some moral lessons to close each book, but thanks to his lack of Scriptural foundation in real right and wrong, his points tend to fall flat. I keep trying to make it past the halfway point of Oathbringer, and just can't bring myself to see the value. My favorite character, Kaladin, has become extremely unrelatable and morally grey. There are at least forty reasonably important characters that I'm supposed to keep track of, and forty-eight subplots that I'm supposed to care about.

And again, that's because this isn't about and escape anymore, or about a lesson. The fantasy is trying to be the real world, and when you have enough going on in your real world as it is, the reading shifts from being a delight to a chore. 

The same has become true for me in the world of board games. I thought this was supposed to be a fun retreat with friends and family. Since when was a board game supposed to be something you have to block out a day for, and think of nothing else for the hours that you're playing? Do we not have real lives to attend to?


No Such Thing as Evil

This is perhaps the worst development in modern fantasy literature, film, games, etc. There is no such thing as evil. Yes, Thanos wants to kill trillions indiscriminately - but look at his noble intentions and difficult sacrifices! Yes, the Voidbringers have come to destroy the world - but look at their rich cultural heritage! Yes, Voldemort wants to terrorize the world - but look at his tough orphan childhood!

Again, let's compare this to a creator that actually believes and understands the reality of good and evil, like Tolkien. He is not interested in excuses, caveats, complex intentions or cultural background: evil is evil, and he will call it evil. Good is good, and he will make it good, and the good will overcome the evil.

A godless society needs everyone to be gray in some way, because it believes everyone and everything to be gray. This is a tremendous lie, and a sinister poison that not only degrades the quality of fantasy but also deceives the human soul.


The Answer

God's Word, obviously. You have to start there. Then you need to have film-makers, writers, game designers, etc. who understand what Scripture teaches, believe it, and allow it to shape their work. The state of modern fantasy is not a surprise, but a logical symptom of our increasingly godless nation. If we want the life to come back to our fantasy, it needs to return to its original function: An extended parable, built around truth, beauty, and goodness, set in a world of great wonder, imagination, and inspiration.

And thank God for J.R.R. Tolkien and men like him who showed us how to do this the right way.

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Hear, Pray, Act

 


This is a little rule of thumb for what a Christian may want to be doing at any given time:

Hear, Pray, Act

First and foremost, Hear. We are justified by faith, apart from works of the law. And faith comes from... hearing! And hearing through the word of Christ. 

Our salvation comes neither through prayer, nor through action, but through passive reception of Christ's word: hearing. Now it still takes time and effort to hear, but this occurs in the same way that it takes time and effort to eat. You consume food but you do not make the boast, "Behold, Oh Lord: I have eaten!" Rather, you eat because you are not a fool, and recognize that without food, your body will starve. Likewise, your soul will starve (and eventually your body with it) if you deprive yourself of Christ, the bread of life. So our first task as Christians is not really a task at all, but rather a gift: Hear.

Second, Pray. Because Jesus is your Lord, call upon him in prayer and praise, lament and thanksgiving. Look to him for all good things, as the Second Commandment bids you to do. The natural response to hearing the word of God is prayer. The word of God in our ears teaches us to call upon him with our hearts.

The Lord's Prayer, the Psalms, and other prayers of Scripture represent a beautiful intersection between hearing and praying. We are blessed to be able to respond to God's word with more of his word, shaped into prayers that echo back through the centuries. In the Psalter, we have words for all times of life, words of law and promise, words of repentance and joy, the words and prayers of Christ himself.

Third, Act. Having been saved by grace alone, we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus for good works, that we should walk in them. The rest of the time that isn't spend hearing or praying (or perhaps while you hear and pray) is time for action! A Christian fears God and turns away from evil, loves his neighbor, honors his parents, works diligently, etc. 

And this Action necessarily directs him back to Hearing the word of forgiveness after another day struggling against the things he does not want to do, but keeps on doing. He responds to this word with Prayer, and then proceeds again to Act.

You might suppose a fourth category of Rest would be fitting here, but how does our Lord bid us rest? Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. We find our rest first and foremost in hearing Christ, the word made flesh, and by laying our burdens on him in prayer. We can rest with a clear conscience as God himself did. We can take days off, take weeks off, take vacations, etc. But Christ invites us to rest in the word of God and prayer, not apart from them.

It should also be noted that neither internet browsing binges, nor endless "planning" to avoid a task, nor mindless snacking until food becomes revolting, have any place in this way of life.

Hear, Pray, Act

There's a good way for a Christian to spend his days.


Welcome to Rep City

 


I think there is so much wisdom in the Iron Wolf approach to burpees... and to nearly any pursuit. He says things like

"Welcome to Rep City"

"Reps = Reputation"

He is obsessed with "getting your reps in" and every one of his workouts are full of one constant: Repetitions.

Consistent action toward a goal is how goals are achieved. Consistent action is just another word for reps. If you put in reps, after reps, after more reps... you will slowly and steadily move toward your goal.

If you put in day after day after day  of reps zombifying your mind with a glowing screen, you will get really good at escaping into the allure of entertainment. If you put in day after day after day off the screen, in the Psalms, and moving your body, you will find that your whole body and mind are able to transform - simply through getting in the reps.

There is no secret sauce.

Just reps.