NBA Finals Preview

 

The NBA Finals matchup is set: Nuggets vs Heat, beginning June 1st in Denver. The Nuggets are a surprise to me - the Lakers were my pick out of the West.

I can't say I kept faith with the Heat all through the season, but they were my pick to come out of the East before the season started, and now they've actually done it! In the process, Miami has snuffed out the hopes of Boston's historic 0-3 comeback, and the title aspirations of the Bucks. They also disposed of a tough Knicks team along the way.

But in their path stands their final and probably biggest challenge. Denver has been playing absolutely dominant basketball, coming off their #1 seeding and working all the way to a sweep of LeBron and the Lakers. That is no small feat. They seem to have figured out their winning formula and now only four wins separate the two-time MVP from his long-coveted trophy. They also have the advantage of a much longer rest period, whereas the Heat will only have two days to recover.

Here is my Finals prediction:

Game 1: A tired Heat team against a rusty Nuggets team leads to a sloppy game without top-tier play from either group. The Nuggets pull out the win with their superior talent. G1 - Nuggets

Game 2: Spoelstra has worked through the game tape and comes through with an excellent game plan to help keep the Heat in the mix. He outcoaches the Nuggets for a close win on the road. G2 - Heat

Game 3: The Nuggets look like the champs. Jokic has a huge game, and they spoil the parties in Miami as the Heat return to floriday. G3 - Nuggets

Game 4: Jimmy Butler comes alive. He doesn't let the Heat lose, hitting clutch shot after clutch shot to even out the series again. G4 - Heat

Game 5: In a hard-fought battle, the Nuggets again overwhelm the Heat with world-class play from Jokic and a storing burst from Jamal Murray. It doesn't end up being particularly close. G5 - Nuggets

Game 6: Facing elimination, the Heat take the Nuggets go to overtime in Miami. Butler and Adebayo drain free throws, grab rebounds, and hit the big shots to force a Game 7. G6 - Heat

Game 7: In an all-time classic, Jokic's triple-double is not enough to overcome the fearless and unrelenting Heat. With big contributions from several role players, the Heat finish off an extremely tight game with a Jimmy Butler turnaround jumper for the win. G7 - Heat

Field Report #038

 

Good evening!

The 555.5 Training Plan is progressing nicely through Phase I. I had planned to work in a few burpees this week but it's not a necessary step. Burpees will start up at 80 a day beginning next week, and hold there with no other changes for three weeks. 

Psalms, as ever, are at the core. I'm still on track to work though the Psalter in 30 days - I've done that plan before but never done it in 30 before. Today is Day 11 and we're still alive! I haven't really gotten into Psalm 18 yet but I warming up for it. It has been very nice to work in some variety going through the 30-day plan instead of having so much focus on the ones I already have memorized. 

Haney won the fight against Loma - according to the judges - but as Teddy Atlas laid out so clearly this week, change needs to happen. At least one of those three judges was either corrupt or blind as a bat... and it's not the latter. It's interesting to get a scoop on the inner workings of the boxing world, and how the flow of money affects the outcomes of fights. Reform is needed, and Teddy Atlas is trying to make it happen. I'd love to watch more boxing but 0E is doing a good time of limiting that, and it really isn't valuable if I'm being honest.

The Nuggets swept the Lakers in a stunner for me, but thankfully the Heat are still rolling toward the Finals. They lost game 4 but still have a 3-1 lead and I think they're going to make it out to the Finals. History agrees.

Lots of house projects on the list this summer - we got a big one out the way with a recent tree removal, and I'm looking forward to getting things into a good place before next fall.

Create in me a clean heart, O God, and renew a right spirit within me. Into your hands I commit my spirit; you have redeemed me, O + Jesus Christ, faithful God. So I do not run aimlessly; I do not box as one beating the air. Amen.

Field Report #037

 

Good evening!

It's been a while since I've put out a Field Report. But I had a few thoughts to put out there so here they are.

Today marks the conclusion of Week 1 of my training program for 555.5 - an upcoming Pirn endurance event (December 30, 2023). The first week of training has gone well, with a steady diet of Psalms and 0 Entertainment as planned. Lots of progress to make, but like I said, starting how I want to. Week 2 has the same plan, but I may sprinkle in 40 daily burpees (excluding Sundays) so that 80 won't be as much of a shock to the system a week from now.

Also I'm still pushing to be able to open up the above-pictured Psalter I bought! It is inevitable if I just keep going.

The Heat are up 2-0 (Yes!) but the Lakers are now down 3-0 (Aw.) Meanwhile, there's a big fight tonight, starting in about 20 minutes: Haney vs Lomachenko. I like Loma a lot, not so much Haney. But purely in terms of boxing, there are many reasons to believe Haney has a significant edge here. But like last time I made a fight prediction, I have to go for the guy I want to win. Hopefully his good qualities will be enough to carry him to the victory, or otherwise God will fight for him.

It's interesting how invested we assume God is in sporting events. Most of them serve more as distractions from his word, unlike the life-and-death, good-and-evil competitions of Old Testament history that this thinking is rooted in. 

Anyway, I'm saying Lomachenko UD tonight.

Let's see what happens!

I do not run aimlessly; I do not box as one beating the air.

2023 NBA Conference Finals

 

Here we go again.

The 2023 Conference Finals have arrived, and as noted by "The Sporting News" on Twitter, this will be an exact replay of the 2020 Bubble Conference Finals. The seeding is different, and some of the players have changed - but the teams and their stars are the same. Here's how that postseason played out:

• Heat beat the Celtics in 6
• Lakers beat the Nuggets in 5
• Lakers beat the Heat to win the title in 6

Is there reason to suspect anything different from the last time this happened? What are the big storylines going in? Who, if anyone, is the favorite to win it all? Here's my analysis:

The Favorite

Current betting odds think the title favorites are the Boston Celtics, followed by the Nuggets, the Lakers, and finally the Heat. At this point it's so difficult to make a call. Every team has run through a gauntlet and overcome so much to be here. For me, I think the oddsmakers are not taking history into account quite enough. Eric Spoelstra has proven that he knows how to solve this Celtics team, like he did in 2020. LeBron is almost impossible to beat in a conference finals matchup, as he's proven... 10 times? Dang. I'm taking the two "underdogs": Lakers and Heat. I also need to name an overall favorite though for this subtitle to be accurate, and for that one I'll go against history. Jimmy Butler was my prediction before the season started, and I feel like I can't really say anything else considering how far he's come. The guy wants his ring, and there may never be another chance for him to make it happen.

The Favorite: Miami Heat

The Big Question - Lakers vs Nuggets

Each series will be hard-fought between two all-world basketball teams. For me, the defining question in the Lakers vs Nuggets matchup is: Has Jokic learned to get out the sledgehammer? Think of the last two rounds as a giant brick wall. Most teams, trying to get past the wall, will eventually be beaten - they'll look for a gap, try to climb, halfheartedly beat it with their fists, etc. Many very skilled players, like Jokic, are able to get almost all the way to the pinnacle, but when they get to the brick wall, their maneuvering and skill and prowess just isn't enough. However, there are a select few players who, at this point, pick up a sledgehammer and start bashing the wall to pieces. In other words, they find a way. It's about something more than your observable basketball skill set. It's a mental thing. LeBron has it. Curry has it. Has Jokic found it? That's his only hope. Being an MVP caliber player isn't enough at this level. You need an MVP caliber mindset.

The Big Question - Heat vs Celtics

Talk about another guy who is going to find a way - Jimmy Buckets. He has not yet had a team around him that enables him to finish that final push for a ring. We've seen it so many times with LeBron, like in 2018 where he was clearly the most dominant and greatest player on the floor the whole playoffs. The Cavs just didn't have the personnel to finish the job. While the greatest do have to find a way, they can't do it all on their own. This year, I think the Heat as a whole have enough to make it happen. But not if the Celtics play to their potential. Which brings me to the big question: Will the Celtics lock in for four games? At their best, I think the Celtics might be the best team in the league. But will Tatum have another off night? Will Smart disappear offensively for a game? Because when you're facing a team like the Heat, they will take advantage of any and every chink in your armor, expose it, and use it to beat you (as they have in the past). If the Celtics play inconsistently, the Heat will pick them apart. Have they matured enough to turn in four performances with their top guys locked in and playing to their potential? We'll find out pretty soon.

 A Deserving Winner

At this point in the competition, I think every team would be very much deserving, if they were to finish the job. With the Cavs out, it's hard for me to get too fired up against anyone (besides the Warriors, our old rivals). LeBron is constantly bashed for his "lack" of rings, and a win here would be the crowing achievement of his incredible resume. Butler has been taking names in the playoffs for years, and this would finally be the payoff for all his hard work. Jokic has had doubters (like me) after every playoff elimination, and this would confirm the legitimacy of his MVP trophies. And the Celtics came so close last year, and have carefully developed their core for a few years in preparation for a moment just like this. My ranking of preferred winners would be Heat, Lakers, Celtics, Nuggets. 

Go Cavs

The Celtics are living proof that it takes time to develop a talented core and bring them all the way to the top of the sport. With their early playoff exit as evidence, I think the Cavs have some serious maturing to do before they get to that point. My advice? Keep Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, and Garland together. DO NOT BLOW UP THE TEAM. Give them the years they need to develop and mature together. I think they'll put up some better playoff showings in the future, and by the 2025 or 2026 Finals, it may be their time for a title run. My only real question mark with them is Bickerstaff. He seems to perhaps struggle to recognize his own shortcomings in playoff games. He might need time too, or he might just need a replacement. Time will tell.

Conference Finals Approaching

 

A playoff year that I was worried would end up disappointing has turned into one of the most thrilling in recent memory. This year was always considered more or less "wide open" in terms of who had a shot at the trophy. But I don't think anyone was expecting the doors to be blown off the hinges quite to this extent.

As I type this, the #8 seed Heat are up 3-1 against the Knicks and are one quarter and a 10-point deficit away from closing things out in Madison Square Garden. The Lakers are up 3-1 against the defending champion Golden State Warriors. The 76ers are up 3-2 against the defending Eastern Conference Champ Boston. The Bucks lost in the first round. The Nuggets are on the brink of knocking out Kevin Durant. Luka Legend didn't even make the playoffs.

The excitement is pretty palpable at this point. I'm a LeBron fan and I predicted the Heat to win it all, so both of those situations playing out are pretty exciting. The shadow looming over the whole thing is the fact that the Cavs lost in the first round. It was not their year, but hopefully it will be a valuable learning experience. 

To me, the most fun result would be a Lakers vs Heat Finals. LeBron and AD vs Butler, Adebayo, and Spoelstra (at least those are the names I'm most interested in). The Lakers would have the edge in playoff experience (thanks, LeBron), defense (AD), and depth (role players have stepped up in a huge way). The Heat would have the edge with the best overall player (Butler), best coaching (Spoelstra), and best team dynamics. I think it would be a great show and a close series - honestly, I would kind of hate to see either team lose. Jimmy Butler really deserves a ring at this point, and this very same matchup already came up in 2020, with LeBron finishing on top. On the other had, LeBron "only" has four rings and is constantly underrated because of it in the all-time legend conversations. A fifth title, especially if LeBron steps up his play in the Finals, would be an absolutely stunning cap to his resume: winning his fifth championship (same as Kobe) in the season he breaks the scoring record.

I think and hope that the Heat find a way to win it all this season, however it plays out. What a story it would be - the 8 seed that went all the way.

Our Refuge and Strength

Artwork: "Salvation"  Artist: Kevin Carden

God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble. Psalm 46:1

A glowing screen is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.

Exercise is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.

Escape is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.

Jesus Christ is our refuge and strength, and he is a jealous God.

He is jealous because he knows the other gods come from the evil one, who wants to kill you. Jesus won't let that happen.

He knows the evil one is a master at taking something good and tempting you to use it for evil.

One of the Liar's easiest lures is to tempt you to pick anything else as your refuge and strength.

Don't take the bait. Close the laptop, get off the couch, be a man, and open the Psalms. Only in the words of Christ will your yoke be easy, and your burden be light.

One Through Eight

 

What a year for the playoffs so far. Amid the boring blowouts and constant injuries, there have been some truly excellent games. The result is the first ever playoffs with every playoff seed represented, from the "underdog" Heat to the "favorite" Nuggets. A 7 beat a 2, an 8 beat  a 1, and things have been pretty crazy overall.

We will now be treated to the following matchups:

Nuggets vs Suns (2x MVP without a title faces 2x champ KD and Devin Booker)

Celtics vs 76ers (Favorite, most complete team vs injured MVP candidate Embiid and Harden)

Warriors vs Lakers (Curry vs LeBron, Warriors dynasty vs still-exploring Lakers squad)

Knicks vs Heat (Tough and deep Knicks squad vs the fire and genius of Butler and Spoelstra)

Sadly, the Cavs are out, which probably deserves its own article. But excitingly, my 2 picks to play in the Finals from the start of the season have survived the first round: The Warriors and the Heat! I really don't know what will happen from this point forward, but here are some of my thoughts:

1. Suns over Nuggets in 7

Jokic is perennially overrated, and never has what it takes against the stiffest playoff competition. KD is proven and has come out on top on this battlefield. More scoring power, more experience, more wins. 

2. Celtics over 76ers in 6

Embiid is not going to be at his most effective, and he has an illustrious injury history. The Celtics are solid from top to bottom, and they have unfinished business from last year.

3. Warriors over Lakers in 6

It just comes down to injuries. If LeBron and AD are healthy enough, I honestly think they have the edge. LeBron can beat the warriors when his co-stars are healthy. If either of them is ailing, and the Warriors don't have their own injury disaster, the Warriors will take it with relative ease. However, I have little faith in the Warriors to stay healthy. Thompson and Curry rarely play 5 consecutive games without straining, spraining, or twisting something. LeBron has by far the less terrifying injury history. My prediction is that all the stars are limited in the series, but the Warriors' experience and team dynamics gives them the victory.

4. Heat over Knicks in 6

This one is contingent on Butler's health, but I think the Heat are the better team. I wrote at the start of the season about how badly Butler wants this ring. Absolutely no one in the league plays on his level come playoff time, period. Without an injury to key role players, he would have taken down the Lakers in 2020. He was the rightful Finals MVP. He is not going down to the New York Knicks.

Conference Finals

And that would bring us to the Conference Finals! Celtics vs Heat and Warriors vs Suns. So much history - the Celtics and the Heat matched up in LeBron's era with some classic games, and Warriors vs Suns would be a matchup of former teammates Curry and KD. If Butler is healthy, I again have to take the Heat - they are such a fun and stunningly good 8-seed underdog. Imagine bottom-seeded Miami in the NBA Finals! In the other matchup, I take the Warriors. I still think Booker is a choke artist despite his heroics so far and KD is incredibly delicate. This then sets me up for what I predicted before the first game of the season:

NBA Finals

Ok, Warriors vs Heat Finals. Four teams have managed to interrupt the Warriors Dynasty from 2015 through 2022: The Cavs, the Raptors, the Lakers, and the Bucks. We will now see the final interruption - the team that will end this dynasty for good: the Miami Heat. If Miami's core can remain healthy, there are very few forces on earth that could stop this team. And I don't think the Warriors are one of them.

Let's see what happens!