2024 NBA Finals - Preview and Predictions

 

It's that time again!

The NBA playoffs have come to their culmination. The Dallas Mavericks beat the Timberwolves 4-1 and the Boston Celtics beat the Pacers 4-0 to set up a really fun Finals matchup. 

Back on February 9th, after Kyrie went to the Mavericks, I wrote, "The Mavericks are the new favorites in the West." My sports predictions are not often right, but this time it played out the way you'd expect. The Mavericks' run reminds me of some of the LeBron / Kyrie years with the Cavs: rarely at the top of their conference, but nearly unstoppable come playoff time. And Luka is a player of that caliber, capable of taking over an entire series. He's found an excellent partner in crime with Kyrie, and I think the two of them are going to have a lot of guys in Boston a little nervous.

At the same time, let's not forget the historically great regular season that Boston turned in. They've been the team to beat all year, and have waltzed through the playoffs up to this point. With such a deep, well-rounded, built-to-win roster, it's hard to bet against the Celtics. 

I have a sweet spot for Kyrie from his days in Cleveland, and Doncic has been super fun since he first entered the league. In other words, I am biased. But aside from those factors, here's why I think the Dallas Mavericks will win the 2024 NBA Title.

Best Duo + Good Team

On way to look at a recipe for a Championship-caliber team is to have the best possible duo, surrounded by good players. Think Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Steph and KD, LeBron and Kyrie, Jokic and Murray. Well, Dallas has the best duo in this matchup in Luka and Kyrie. While Tatum and Brown are undeniably excellent, I don't think many would argue that Tatum has risen to Luka's heights, or Brown to Kyrie's. So Dallas has the edge in terms of a star one-two punch. But almost as promising has been the level of contribution from the rest of the team. The 2017 Cavs taught is that it doesn't matter how good your 1-2 is, if the other team also has a great 1-2 but a vastly superior 3-4-5. For these Finals, I would say that Dallas has a decisive advantage with the 1-2, and only a slight disadvantage on the 3-4-5-6. To me, that's a recipe for success.

The Game is About Buckets

One of the things that makes Dallas's 1-2 punch superior is their ability to shoot the basketball into the bucket. Not to state the obvious, but as Uncle Drew would say, the game is about buckets. It sets off little alarm bells with me when I'm hearing all the praises sung for some exciting new player, but then "he's not a great shooter." Oh. So the one thing you absolutely need to win basketball games, that's not what he's about. If shooting isn't your strong suit, good luck facing up against Luka and Kyrie in the playoffs. Those guys just know how to get buckets. And they know it better than Tatum, or Brown, or anyone else on the Celtics roster. I trust the Mavericks more than the Celtics to put the ball in the bucket in crunch time with the game on the line.

The Mind of a Champion

Especially when the lights are the brightest, the mind plays a huge role in success or failure. If two teams or individuals are closely matched in terms of physical ability, the mentally stronger team or individual will almost always win. I think both Boston and Dallas have players and coaches with great mental stability, focus, and strength. But the two individuals who I think will have the greatest influence on the outcome of the Finals are Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. Doncic thrives in high-pressure situations. He wants the big shot, and he knows he can make it. And Tatum wants the shot, too, but the difference is that he wants to prove to the world that he can make it. Remember last year, when Tatum said, "I'm humbly one of the best basketball players in the world." That's a line that you hear from a guy who is trying to convince himself of the fact. Curry doesn't need to say that. Kawhi in 2019 didn't need to say that. And Doncic doesn't need to say that, because he knows it to be true. He's not trying to convince you, and more importantly he's not trying to convince himself. He already has that confidence. A little mental edge like that can be the difference between winning and losing, between finding the right moment or chucking up a prayer, between making and missing. 

I will say that if Jayson Tatum can overcome his mental demons, I think the Celtics will win it all. But the inconsistent nature of his playoff performances tells me he's not there yet.

How it Happens

To finish, I'll briefly break down how I expect the Finals to play out.

Game 1: Celtics win due to superior overall talent and ability. They are physically and mentally fresh, not yet worn down by the fear and uncertainty that Kyrie and Luka will inspire in them. (Right - Celtics won)

Game 2: Mavericks win due to a big game from Luka. He gets buckets, he takes names, and he is not going to let Dallas go down 2-0 in his long-awaited first Finals. (Wrong - Celtics won)

Game 3: Mavericks win as the home crowd gets into Boston's head a little, Kyrie has his first big game on the stat sheet, and the Celtics fight hard but fall short. (Wrong - Celtics won)

Game 4: Celtics win as Tatum has his biggest game of the series, the Mavericks get a little worn down, and Boston gets used to the crowd's pressure. (Wrong - Mavericks won. This is why I should not try sports betting.)

Game 5: Mavericks win in Boston, as Luka takes pleasure in silencing the raucous crowd and he and Kyrie drop bucket after bucket late in the game. Boston can't keep up, and the mental demons are starting to show in Tatum and company.

Game 6: Mavericks win it all. Boston plays desperately to try to avoid a heartbreaking elimination. Brown has his best game of the series. But Luka plays viciously and with absolute unstoppable bucketry to put it away once and for all. Kyrie plays with cold and Mamba-mentality machine-like bucket-making wizardry to help seal the win. Final score 119-107. Luka pours in 34, Kyrie with 30. Luka wins Finals MVP and his first ring. Kyrie and Dallas each win their second championship. 

What's Next?

If Doncic wins this year, he may be setting up a dynasty in Dallas. The world is starting to realize just how special Luka is. Kyrie is 32. And Luka is only 25 years old. I'm guessing they have at least one more title together in their future, especially if they finish the job this year. I'm guessing that Luka will retire with 5 championships to his name.

Ale-8-One Flavor Ranking

 

Ale-8 is the king of carbonated beverages. The company has found the right combination of flavor and nostalgia to build a following of loyal customers, of which I am a member.

I still remember my first time drinking Ale-8 as a kid, on a father-son camping trip in Red River Gorge; it was just about the coolest thing I had ever tasted. Here and there across the intervening years, I would have another taste and enjoy the crisp, refreshing, genuine ginger and sugar flavor. Over the last couple years, my interest in this drink has revived and it has become something of a tradition for me to enjoy Ale-8-One as a special treat. With this reinvigorated interest, I've been able to sample a few different flavors of my favorite soft drink! Here is my definitive and official ranking of all the Ale-8-One flavors I have thus-far sampled, which will be updated should I try a new flavor for the first time.

#6: Orange Cream Ale-8

This was my first voyage into new flavors of this classic drink. There's something to the mellow softening effect of vanilla, but orange-flavored soda has never been my favorite and this proved to be no exception. Orange as a fruit is excellent, but as a pop flavor just doesn't work the best. I would still partake of this if given the opportunity, but will not pursue it again, considering the strength of the competition.

#5: Cherry Ale-8

Cherry Ale-8 is quite good. The drink does a nice job of offering the right balance of cherry flavor - not too heavy or too light. No artificial colors or flavors, either. A big step up from the orange, but not quite as good as...

#4: Peach Ale-8

Peach is a really nice Ale-8 flavor. It's simple, sweet, and refreshing. It tastes like peach. It's good. It also tastes a tad sweeter than the classic flavor despite identical sugar numbers (it's just less cut by the citrus and ginger), making it more accessible as an after-meal treat or summer oceanside refreshment. I'm a big fan.

#3: Strawmelon Ale-8

It was a surprise seeing this one show up in a local grocery store, but of course I wanted to give it a try and ended up enjoying a few of these on a vacation. It grew on me each time I tried it; a pleasant, sweet flavor with the strawberry-watermelon idea coming through, and crisp and refreshing like you expect from an Ale-8. The flavor was perhaps a hair better than peach (although now I suppose I'll have to try that one again, as well) but not quite on the level of blackberry. A tasty and satisfying refreshment!

#2: Blackberry Ale-8

I am partway through my first ever bottle of Blackberry Ale-8 as I write this review. It's a real slam dunk - all the upsides of peach but with a beautiful blackberry flavor that I like even better than the others previously mentioned on this list. I also like that they don't go for the artificial colors on this one. Again, they keep it simple and nail the flavor, while maintaining citrus and ginger to give it that signature pop.

Before I get to Number 1, I should also mention that all Ale-8 is not the sweetest pop on the market - far from it. With 30g sugar per 12oz bottle, it falls below Coke, Pepsi, Sprite, and Mountain Dew. Normally I'm not the guy to go looking for the low sugar option - nothing tastes "too sweet" for me - but I think that magical 30g number lifts the drink somehow. Drinking one of the other big names mentioned above feels heavier and more artificial (HF corn syrup), whereas Ale-8 is a light and refreshingly sweet experience. 

But the lower sugar content does affect how to get the best experience out of your Ale-8, which brings me to Number One...

#1: Classic Ale-8

Nothing can replace the classic taste of the original Ale-8-One. Other ginger-ale staples like Vernors and Canada Dry simply don't hold a candle to it - and I enjoy them both! It's the classic green glass bottle, it's the Kentucky vibes, it's the smell of sweet citrus-ginger vapor rising from the bottle after you twist the cap, but more than anything, it's the taste.

If you are interested in trying Ale-8, I will go back to the point on sweetness for a moment. The Standard American Diet is so pumped full of sugar that, depending on your strategy, Ale-8 may fall a little short for you when it comes to sweetness. Having enjoyed many bottles of this wonderful elixir, allow me to give you a recipe for the best possible experience. If you want to enjoy the absolute best bottle of soda pop you've ever had, follow these simple instructions.

    A) Enjoy a reasonably sized, ordinary breakfast.

    B) Be active during the day, preferably outdoors, preferably during the summer in Kentucky.

    C) For lunch, eat something small or skip the meal. Refrain from snacking.

    C) Remain adequately hydrated as the afternoon wears on, but not so much as to not be thirsty.

    D) Sit down with loved ones to a dinner that includes a hamburger, again preferably outside.

    E) Thank the Lord, and just before beginning to eat, twist open a classic Ale-8 and take a sip.

Usyk

 

Oleksandr Usyk has beaten Tyson Fury to become the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in the 4-belt era. 

We are not in any of the golden ages of boxing, and the sport currently sits far behind several of its competitors in the public consciousness. As I've become more interested in boxing, all of my heroes of the sport are fighters from the '40s-'50s or '70s-'80s. But the saying holds true that as the heavyweight division goes, so goes the sport. 

In Usyk, I think our generation of boxing fans finally has a guy worth putting up there with the legends. My three favorite fighters of all time now (in chronological order) - Marciano, Hagler, Usyk. 

What a fight, and what a fighter. You don't get to see stuff like that every day. Following the live round updates, it seemed inevitable in rounds 4-6 that the thing I feared would, of course, happen. Of course the guy with a 6-inch height advantage and 38-pound weight advantage was going to take the fight. It was unreasonable to hope Usyk really could clobber a guy like Fury.

And then he started coming back. Then he started coming back hard. And then, all of a sudden, there was Fury on the ropes, dazed and getting the count from the referee, with Oleksandr Usyk in total control of the giant.

A bystander like me cannot even begin to imagine the sheer quantity of work, or training, or heart, or commitment, or confidence, or prayer that goes into doing something like what Usyk just did. But he did it. He followed through. He didn't let us down. He "exercised self-control in all things" and won the perishable wreath; better yet, he knows of the imperishable wreath, and desires it more than any earthly accolade. Oleksandr Usyk is the man, and the fighter that we needed.

Thank you, Usyk, for finding a way, and giving our generation a champion to inspire and toward which to aspire. Nowadays, the "old-timers" can wax poetic about the days of Louis and Frazier and Hagler. But forty years from now, I would love to see a pair of young eyes light up as I begin, "I remember Usyk..."

Andúril

Need a pick-me-up?

Try Andúril today. In less than four minutes, you can turn your day around and experience the words of the living God across the ages. Take multiple doses as needed throughout the day for maximum benefit.

One great Psalm, one great prayer, and one great hymn stanza - that's all it takes! Use ours or mix and match your own favorite Psalms, hymns and prayers.

Sing them together back to back to back, and watch the Father of Lies turn into the Father of LAME!

Talk to your spiritual doctor about Andúril today.

Side effects may include majestic music, meditation on the suffering of Christ, repentance, the cure for souls, and serious injury to nearby demons. 

And remember - "He won't catch you sleeping - if you pray without ceasing!" 

Andúril

Out of the depths I cry to you, O LORD!

O Lord, hear my voice! Let your ears be attentive to the voice of my pleas for mercy!

If you, O LORD, should mark iniquities, O Lord, who could stand?

But with you there is forgiveness, that you may be feared.

I wait for the LORD, my soul waits, and in his word I hope;

my soul waits for the Lord more than watchmen for the morning, more than watchmen for the morning.

O Israel, hope in the LORD! For with the LORD there is steadfast love, and with him is plentiful redemption.

And he will redeem Israel from all his iniquities. (LSB 130)

Our Father who art in heaven,

hallowed be Thy name,

Thy kingdom come,

Thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven;

give us this day our daily bread;

and forgive us our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us;

and lead us not into temptation,

but deliver us from evil.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory forever and ever. Amen. (LSB 957)

Lamb of God, pure and holy,

Who on the cross didst suffer,

Ever patient and lowly,

Thyself to scorn didst offer.

All sins Thou borest for us,

Else had despair reigned o’er us:

1. Have mercy on us, O Jesus! O Jesus!

2. Have mercy on us, O Jesus! O Jesus!

3. Thy peace be with us, O Jesus! O Jesus! (LSB 434)

[Pick one of the three endings; if you take multiple doses throughout the day, work through each ending as you go.]

NBA Conference Finals Preview + Predictions

 

Well, I did predict that the Cavs would win their first playoff series and then lose the second. It still stings though to see them go out in 5 games to the Celtics. But the other two quarterfinal series were more competitive, going to 6, 7, and 7 games. Now, our field is set with a very interesting mix of four teams:

Pacers - Not expected to actually make it this far, young and fun team apparently

Timberwolves - Also young and fun - great regular season but I figured they would get beat by Denver

Celtics - Best team in the league all season, but can they finally bring home the hardware?

Mavericks - My favorite of the bunch, due to the presence of the Doncic / Irving dynamic duo

Let's break down each matchup, and then look at my predicted Finals matchup. 

Pacers vs Celtics

Celtics favorites and for good reason; I don't think Indiana has the raw firepower and star play to push them over the edge. They'll be hungry for more next year, though. I don't know if Tatum and company are mentally good enough to win it all, but I think they can handle the Pacers in a best of 7. Celtics in 6.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves

Luka and Kyrie have the skills and experience, and really don't want to let this golden opportunity pass them by. Minnesota is fun and really excellent, but they probably lack the playoff poise to put together four wins against these Mavericks. Look for some heroic games from both of the Mavericks' stars, and an exciting but decisive end for Edwards, KAT, and company. Mavericks in 6.

Celtics vs Mavericks

That would leave us with a Finals matchup of Boston vs Dallas. Part of me can't help but think that Boston has to actually win it all one of these years, considering they've been on the cusp with this group for maybe half a decade. The other part of me can't help but remember the failures and mental lapses of the past, the weak mindset that has plagued Tatum and his compatriots for years. I think Luka and Kyrie have that killer instinct, and for that reason I'll take the Mavericks in 7 to win it all.